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Post by thelensofhistory on Apr 5, 2015 19:38:59 GMT 12
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Post by macnz on Apr 16, 2015 22:44:30 GMT 12
Latest report on state of Aussie Ship building says : The report concludes production of naval warships in Australia involves a "30 per cent to 40 price premium over the cost of comparable production at shipyards overseas", but finds "this premium could drop over time". - Hope NZ pollies take note. All for ANZAC cooperation we just don't want to pay for 2.5 Frigates and get them 3 yrs late. Note: report based conclusion on surface ship building only. Source: www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-16/naval-ship-building-in-australia-more-expensive-than-overseas/6395972 |
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Post by thelensofhistory on Apr 17, 2015 21:04:40 GMT 12
A complete review of the Australian ship building industry is required. Everything from the need to retool in light of 3D Printing and the management of projects needs to be tackled. The Australian government's failure to gear the shipyards for exports leaves gaps when they are no longer required. Ditching the Alliance model used with the Air warfare destroyers would be a good start.
Given how countries like Vietnam are scrambling to acquire ships and subs the short shortsightedness of the Australian government is really highlighted. Is the NZ government even prepared to go with a high end frigates? They have shown no interest in ensuring the navies two Anzac Class frigates are equipped with anti shipping missiles.
By the time the NZ government gets around to making a purchase we will know if the RAN next generation frigates are MOTS or being build in Australia. If they are MOTS the political factors involved with the Anzac relationship won't come into play.
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Post by macnz on Apr 19, 2015 1:36:16 GMT 12
A complete review of the Australian ship building industry is required. Everything from the need to retool in light of 3D Printing and the management of projects needs to be tackled. The Australian government's failure to gear the shipyards for exports leaves gaps when they are no longer required. Ditching the Alliance model used with the Air warfare destroyers would be a good start. Given how countries like Vietnam are scrambling to acquire ships and subs the short shortsightedness of the Australian government is really highlighted. Is the NZ government even prepared to go with a high end frigates? They have shown no interest in ensuring the navies two Anzac Class frigates are equipped with anti shipping missiles. By the time the NZ government gets around to making a purchase we will know if the RAN next generation frigates are MOTS or being build in Australia. If they are MOTS the political factors involved with the Anzac relationship won't come into play. re: anti-shipping missiles FSU for Te Mana and Te Kaha - 2016 and 2018 with Royal Canadian Frigate upgrade program by Lockheed Package includes; Lockheed Martin’s CMS 330 combat management system, Sea Ceptor active missile system utilising the Common Anti-air Modular Missile (Maritime) (CAMM(M)), and Rheinmetall Multi Ammunition Softkill System with twin-launcher MASS_2L configuration - includes a long-range capability and 2 naval laser warning systems (NLWS) www.navy.mil.nz/nap/nn/16-june-2014-anzac-frigates-to-get-maple-leaf-makeover.htmwww.navy.mil.nz/downloads/pdf/navy-today/nt179.pdfMight have been handy to outfit the OPVs with the Rheinmetall MASS system too. I suppose that will be part of a future MLU |
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Post by macnz on Apr 19, 2015 2:12:50 GMT 12
re: Is the NZ government even prepared to go with a high end frigates?
Don't think they can afford not to at least have 2 Frigates for combat patrol duties. They will probably be 6000 tonnes if they are MOTS. Ideally should be kitted out for both AAW and ASW roles. A third OPV and a MARS would be the ideal way to complete the fleet. If NZ were to opt for another 2 OPVs instead, then my vote is for 2x 3,750 ton Damen Schelde Holland Class rather than the BAE-Tenix design. However if keeping to a BAE design is preferred then the Riverclass 2 design might be a better profile.
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Post by thelensofhistory on Apr 21, 2015 22:23:06 GMT 12
re: Is the NZ government even prepared to go with a high end frigates? Don't think they can afford not to at least have 2 Frigates for combat patrol duties. They will probably be 6000 tonnes if they are MOTS. Ideally should be kitted out for both AAW and ASW roles. A third OPV and a MARS would be the ideal way to complete the fleet. If NZ were to opt for another 2 OPVs instead, then my vote is for 2x 3,750 ton Damen Schelde Holland Class rather than the BAE-Tenix design. However if keeping to a BAE design is preferred then the Riverclass 2 design might be a better profile. IMO the OPV's should be replaced by UAV's freeing up the crews to man additional frigates or other ships. If the OPV's are just going monitor illegal fishing like happened recently in NZ Antarctic waters its not the best use of navy's resources. Had the OPV's been corvettes or doubled as mine sweepers they would have had more added value. Would it be feasible to fit the Rheinmetall MASS system to HMNZS Canterbury? |
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Post by macnz on Apr 22, 2015 10:34:29 GMT 12
I'm not technically familiar enough about the system or Canterbury to know. All I have read is the system has been fitted out on 26 different classes of vessels so far. Small enough to be fitted onto patrol boats and effective enough to cover a 4500 tonne Tank Landing Ship. In time, if we could afford to, we should. Given HMNZS Canterbury is the center piece of our amphibious task force. System now upgraded to include anti-torpedo decoys as well. Here's a good presentation of the system: www.camara-alemana.org.pe/downloads/121204-11-Rheinmetall.pdf |
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Post by thelensofhistory on Apr 23, 2015 20:40:14 GMT 12
Realistically the RNZN is struck with the Canterbury for better or worse. If the ship can't upgraded with defensive systems it will leave a capability cap that could prove very costly in the future. The fact that in the Falklands War ships without defensive measures on board were sunk is in the open public domain. Any future Frigates will struggle to escort any ships military or civilian that lack defensive armament.
NZ really needs a lobby group that can dish out a few reality checks to the government. This is one of the reasons I am working on my novel project that I have written on this forum.
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Post by thelensofhistory on Jun 6, 2015 17:53:40 GMT 12
The Brits are headed for another round of defence cuts. The per unit cost of the Type 26 Frigate will rise if the RN orders fewer of them. This could influence the NZ government decision making.
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Post by macnz on Jun 9, 2015 3:27:19 GMT 12
will the Type 26 be a serious consideration? - just on the cost dimension alone GBP exchange rate with NZD has never been favorable.
Last cost I read in 2013 speculated GBP350m per hull. That roughly translates to a starting price of NZD$750m before fit-out. Even if production was outsourced to BAE Australia, it would likely have to end up being a RAN led variant and thus cost more and subject to postponements. If there is a preference for European designed vessel, the weak Euro and the fact that European shipbuilders have access to cheaper labor shipyards in the Baltics, SE Europe and Asia means Italy & France can offer the FREMMs more competitively, the Danes can offer the Iver Huitfeldt-class $350m euros (NZD$552m) , while the Spanish have the F-100 to offer at $453m euros (NZD$715m). The Germans have the Type 125 but it costs $650m euros (NZD$1b)per vessel to produce in Germany. Closer to home - Japan, South Korea and Singapore all have developed pedigree in building modern frigates over the last two decades. There are other considerations than just the cost dimension, but if cost is as significant to the NZ public as in the past then I think NZ would be better off looking for a relatively straight out MOTS purchase (within tolerances) rather than pursue a hybrid MOTS design and timetable led by either RN or RAN.
A budget north of $1.5b for 2 vessels will be difficult to sell domestically in NZ. It will also be interesting to see what kind of displacement and deployment spec will be desired by the RNZN as the current breed of frigate are designed in the 6,000-7500 tonnes profile which is twice the size of current ANZAC class.
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Post by futurenz on Jun 15, 2015 22:29:28 GMT 12
Most of the bigger frigates I could find are around 5400-6000 tonnes. These are quite serious vessels with 48 to 64 missile silos, so NZ MoD should be taking a hard look at which of the features of the different ones would add value to what the Navy does. For example, being able to launch "CB90"-style fast assault craft, anti-ship missiles, longer range air defence missiles, or interchangeable mission payloads are all available on some of the designs. I think the FREMM and Type 125 seem to be less versatile ships and designed for the ESSM and Harpoon missiles so perhaps the big radar masts are overkill for our requirements.
I saw somewhere that NZ has rejected the Type-26 as a potential replacement due to not meeting our requirements. I am assuming the main problem was cost, which raises the question of whether BAE refused to licence a foreign ship builder (in South Korea for example) to build them. Apparently they were ready to licence a shipyard in India. Or did MoD just want a Phased Array radar? We certainly dont want to risk of getting stuff built in Oz or UK for crazy prices in the hope that they will eventually be built sometime this century...
I do think that in a high intensity conflict, it would be asking for trouble to deploy a single frigate on its own. To be able to deploy 2 frigates (possibly with different capabilities/mission modules)and escort logistics ships etc we would need minimum 4 frigates. I cant see NZDF being taken seriously unless we can deliver the goods. We had a few years of very low defence spending, so even if the current 1.6% of GDP was judged to be enough we are still playing catch up from those years when NZDF was being run into the ground. We should really be aiming for a gradual increase in defence budget to 1.8% of GDP, meaning that we could afford to maintain and crew a higher level of capability and not just frigates.
A real amphibious "landing ship dock" and more than just 2 or 3 littoral support ship (again with interchangeable mission modules) would make sense if there was enough voter support, although I guess thats wishful thinking.
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Post by thelensofhistory on Jun 17, 2015 21:18:16 GMT 12
Future conflicts will be medium to high intensity and some of them will be in New Zealand's backyard. I would argue that the RNZN being equipped with 4 frigates is the bare min. The replacements for the Anzac Class Frigates will need to incorporate the Air/Missile Defence role. I think the NZ government will rule out the Type 26 frigate based on the per unit cost.
One of the rebounding effects of the UK government's defence cutbacks will be an increase in per unit costs in new naval vessels. By ordering fewer hulls the cost will rise significantly. The lower costs that come from mass production will vanish. The New Zealand government only ordering two replacement frigates would encounter the same issue. No opportunity exists to drive down the price on the basis of ordering 4-6 vessels.
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Post by Dave Homewood on Jun 17, 2015 21:58:50 GMT 12
Isn't adding two more frigates to a conflict simply adding two more targets? We need maritime strike fighters, not boats.
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Post by thelensofhistory on Jun 17, 2015 23:19:30 GMT 12
Isn't adding two more frigates to a conflict simply adding two more targets? We need maritime strike fighters, not boats. Great question.  I do think that both are required. Strike aircraft to provide air cover and frigates to provide ASW. TBH I think that modern day military planners have completely lost sight of what is install for frigates in a future conflict. They will have a high attrition rate in the same way destroyers did in the Battle of the Atlantic. My way of thinking is that the NZDF core roles should be amphibious warfare and countering Area Access/Denial operations in Asia and the South Pacific. People are welcome to disagree (flame away) but I think that is doesn't make sense for the HMNZS Te Mana and Te Kaha to deploy to the Middle East or The Horn of Africa. Any conventional military threat to NZ is going to come from Asia. In the event of war breaking out in Asia what good will the navy's frigates be if they are deployed on the other side of the world? |
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Post by macnz on Jun 18, 2015 2:56:13 GMT 12
Isn't adding two more frigates to a conflict simply adding two more targets? We need maritime strike fighters, not boats. MPA assets with new frigates equipped with NSMs and Sea Ceptors - might be better than maritime strike fighters? Agree just having more frigates alone would be presenting more targets. NZ needs to complement over the horizon capability with its sea platforms. Instead of MPAs for traditional ASW and SAR roles, lets augment their ISR and invest in decent comms suite with Frigates. P8s too big and expensive for NZ needs but a fleet of 4-5 bombardier or gulfstream jets (approx 5000nm) tethered to 3 frigates with the right missiles would offer a decent offensive maritime access and denial capability wouldn't it? |
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Post by futurenz on Jun 18, 2015 21:50:24 GMT 12
Strike fighters are a critical part of major offensive operations, as well as contributing to safety of peacekeeping missions. They don't have to be our aircraft but may be seen as the most valuable contribution, so we need to remember that our allies will expect us to deliver some other capability where we have more of an advantage. Dollars spent on strike aircraft have to come from somewhere and NZ's size could result in budgets being spread too thinly. I expect its better (at this time) to focus on ensuring that any assets we ever deploy are fully kitted out with all the protection we can give them.
P8s are expensive but equivalent to our P3K, have all the comms suites etc, and are about right for our requirements so they could be valuable in their own right. No chance to use them as a proxy for our lack of strike aircraft, not designed for that. They are specialised for surveillance, and yes there must be some capacity to handoff info about enemy positions to friendly ships. I didn't think surveillance patrols were equipped with any kind of long-range target designation gear, but certainly are not a suitable platform to launch anti-ship missiles because that would put them within range of anti-aircraft missiles. You would also want to team up with a country that has a more balanced force, while being able to hold our own if the enemy tries to pick off ships on the edge of the fleet.
Definitely NSM would be an ideal complement to any longer range air-defence missile, fits the Mark 41 cells, and would give a new frigate more offensive capability if required. Considering the limited number of missile vertical cells on the ANZACs, I would think area air defence would be more of a priority, eg SM2 or Aster 30 with 100km range, but perhaps the 8 existing Mark 41 tubes could be left in to fit some of those (and reduce the chances of an attack since you could then engage the enemy aircraft before it fires its missiles). Thats how I would prevent frigates being easy targets.
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Post by macnz on Jul 29, 2015 12:07:44 GMT 12
Nice slide presentation from Germans pitching their MEKO A400 MOTS Frigate design (a.k.a F125) to RAN for their next frigates. Interesting rationale for the displacement scale - not sure I'd agree with the builder's philosophy but its insightful (seems the navy is the only service where advancements in technology means needing bigger platforms?) www.aspi.org.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0016/26503/Kamerman-The-German-experience-slides.pdfIf RAN follow up with a ThyssenKrupp F125 or BAE's Type 26 design then we will be seeing 8000 tonne Frigates at least costing AUD$800m a piece. Don't think that would be very compelling for NZ to piggyback an order off - ANZAC or not. With our defense budget and needs, and procurement successes, hopefully NZ will be looking for a (smaller and more affordable) future frigate design that can get us 3-4 vessels for the price of 2 of these (F125/Type26) |
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Post by thelensofhistory on Jul 29, 2015 15:09:52 GMT 12
My guess is that the RAN will go with the Type 26 modified for tropical service , improved defensive measures and maybe additional surface warfare capability. Smaller frigates/Corvettes are fine if you exclude the air/missile defence role, anti shipping missiles and cruise missiles. I could see the NZ government opting for two Frigates or even the Black Swan Class sloop-of-war if it comes to fruition.
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Post by futurenz on Aug 13, 2015 21:26:40 GMT 12
I like the Type 26 and only about 6500 tonne I think, but its radars seem to be optimised for Sea Ceptor missiles etc and the RAN probably wants its homegrown radar so maybe one of the German or Italian ships is more suited to the Australians.
Now that NZ has decided on Sea Ceptors and isn't yet committed to other missile types, Type 26 frigates would seem a perfect fit if the price was right. Being built in an expensive country won't help, so perhaps we could buy frigates from either India or Brazil that could end up building Type 26 themselves — and free up enough money for us to buy 4 or 5 frigates. BAE could do the weapons fitout in Australia.
I vote for French Gowind class for mine countermeasures, with modules for each mission.
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Post by thelensofhistory on Aug 18, 2015 22:35:18 GMT 12
Yeah , I do think the Australians will fit out the Type 26 or another design to suit their own needs. The RAN will aim for interoperability with the USN. Yeah New Zealand should aim to purchase four hulls. They could be fitted out by local industry. Although the weapons and combat system will have to be installed overseas.
I think a replacement for HMZS Canterbury and the Protector-class OPV's could be thrown into the deal as well.
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I do think that both are required. Strike aircraft to provide air cover and frigates to provide ASW. TBH I think that modern day military planners have completely lost sight of what is install for frigates in a future conflict. They will have a high attrition rate in the same way destroyers did in the Battle of the Atlantic.