End of 100LL, possibly sooner than later

[madmac]

Interesting detail in the latest Savvy aviation news letter, the critical bit being this
mailchi.mp/savvyaviation.com/1j20vrh4sa-890044?e=596335711b

The powers-that-be in Santa Clara County, California, have decreed that leaded avgas will no longer be available after December 31, 2021 at two busy airports that the County controls: Reid-Hillview Airport (KRHV) in San Jose and San Martin Airport (E16) 18 miles to the southeast. Starting on January 1, 2022, only unleaded avgas will be allowed to be sold at those two airports, and at present the only unleaded avgas available is 94UL.

Pleas by AOPA and the FAA for the County to delay this ban on leaded avgas until a viable 100-octane unleaded substitute fuel is available have fallen on deaf ears. Legal and regulatory challenges to the County’s precipitous action appear to have gone nowhere. The experts I’ve spoken with who have been following the situation in Santa Clara County most closely have all told me the same thing: This is almost certainly going to happen.

If only these two airports were affected, it would be bad enough. But none of the experts I’ve spoken with expect things to stop there. There are already indications that Santa Monica Airport (KSMO) in Southern California may cease selling leaded avgas soon. There are also rumours about similar bans coming at California airports from Watsonville (KWVI) in Northern California to Gillespie Field (KSEE) in San Diego.

It also notes that any volume of 100UL is at least 9 months away. This is going to be interesting

[l29]

California has always been known to be a bit "special" just look at the warnings on your house products. 100 will be around for a fair while yet

[ErrolC]

Dec 12, 2021 13:47:38 GMT 12 l29 said:

California has always been known to be a bit "special" just look at the warnings on your house products. 100 will be around for a fair while yet

The FAA has recently cleared a lot of common CA engines for 100UL haven't they? Hence some supply expected in several months.

[madmac]

Its a critical mass problem, once everyone sees someone has banned it, it is likely to spread rapidly as lots of organizations want it gone. There is also a practical production issue, the production of Avgas requires a refinery shut down to clean out the lead to ensure no contamination of unleaded fuel production, with improved maintenance techniques, plant shutdowns are getting much less frequent. Noting that due to the low & declining volumes of Avgas it is batch produced.

Practical its quite likely to be gone by the middle of this decade.