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Post by steve on May 27, 2006 1:17:41 GMT 12
From 2010 I understand that the Australian Defence spend will increase from 2% to 3% of GDP because of the concerns of Chinese domination in the Pacific??
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Post by corsair67 on May 29, 2006 10:23:39 GMT 12
Steve, China may be a background concern, but I think the rise is possibly due more to future major acquisitions like the F-35 for the RAAF, Amphibious Support ships and AAW Destroyers for the RAN, new combat and support vehicles for the Army, and a new satellite for Defence communications. I think that China will become a much stronger influence in the Pacific, but let's hope they use that influence for good intentions, and not bad.
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Post by Dave Homewood on May 29, 2006 13:29:48 GMT 12
NZ is fast becoming a Chinese colony so they've no need to invade us. They're already here.
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Post by corsair67 on May 29, 2006 14:02:45 GMT 12
Maybe that's why Australia wants to spend more on defence, to halt the overflow spilling westwards from across the Tasman? ;D
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Post by steve on May 29, 2006 18:51:09 GMT 12
"group captain" you are on the mark....I was checking on the future wish list for the ADF. The f35s and the new destroyers to replace the hobart etc will certainly need such an increase in overall spending....If NZ could get back to 2% spending at the sharp end our contribution to the region would be seen as genuine and not bludging..
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Post by corsair67 on May 29, 2006 19:52:47 GMT 12
Steve (or anyone else who's interested) you can read what the ADF is spending their money on in this 2006-2007 Budget summary document - www.defence.gov.au/publications/to_defend_australia.pdf(It's a 2.5MB pdf, so may take a little while to download on dial-up). What I find so incredible is that Australia and New Zealand are so far apart not only as far as defence spending as a percentage of GDP is concerned, but in ideology too. Even the Australia Labor opposition has nothing much in common with Clark's 'red-green' coalition and it's ideas on defence spending.
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Post by Dave Homewood on May 29, 2006 20:30:16 GMT 12
But we're not at war though, are we. Australia is.
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Post by corsair67 on May 29, 2006 20:40:35 GMT 12
Australia's not at war: the Iraqis love the Australians. It's the Jordanians, Syrians, Palestinians, Iranians and other mixed ratbags in Iraq that hate Australians!
Once the Australian Army Training Team has the Iraqi Army trained properly and combat ready, the Aussies can come home - in about 20 years time! ;D
What about Afghanistan: aren't the NZ SAS over there? Doesn't seem too peaceful over there at the moment either.
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Post by Dave Homewood on May 29, 2006 20:52:51 GMT 12
The NZ SAS are always at war, somewhere in the world. Seriously. They don't necessarily represent NZ, just good, like super heroes.
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Post by steve on May 30, 2006 1:07:04 GMT 12
PM Helen Clark has been determined to seek out an independent foreign policy for NZ. To be seen as totally indendent of Aus US and UK. I am no fan of hers as I strongly support the concept of collective security especially ANZUS. However just like in Aus there is strong anti american sentiments around... the same here that has stuffed up foreign policy. The Red Green govt is less green now under confidence and supply agreements with United and NZ First however we have moved ideology in different directions from Aus over the past 6 years...which really is bad news from my prospective. Aus and NZ govts have a similar love hate realationship like Canada and US ,,,however we will be there... when the crap hits the fan...(the question is will it be useful!)
I will be generous and give Ms Clark brownie points for the effective doubling of capabilities for of the NAVY FOR SOUTH PACIFIC EMERGENCIES with 7 new vessels and the 105 lavs and anti tank weapons for the army etc...however the airforce halfing was a disgrace and based on ideology and not in the national interest. She has been obsessed in locking us into only UN approved operations...
Dave highlights that we are not at war...and he has point...however the terrorists are hardly likely (i believe)to spare NZ from attack because were not in the coalition of the willing...In any case an attack on Aus is an attack on NZ and Vice Versus ...(Bondi is NZs 5 largest city!)
OK .. NZs isolation means that we can afford to spend less proportionally than Aus if we wish...and we have done exactly that for years under both govts (national and labour) to curry favour with voters for more handouts...
Defence is to important to be changing politically at whims and should be apolitical esp in NZs case as is to a degree within Aus between the Lib/Nat govt and labour oppostion. Their difference appears to be only on where to spend the money not how much in total as i understand esp with Kim Beezley as opp leader)
Thanks for that website...excellent presentation
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Post by corsair67 on May 30, 2006 10:35:53 GMT 12
Glad you liked the Budget summary: I thought it gave a good account of the ADF future directions and plans. The thing that annoys me the most about the NZ Defence Budget is that the Govt. needs to get off their butt and make a massive short-term cash injection into areas of the NZDF that have been forced to make ends meet on too little for far too long. The pissy amount they are allocating per annum at the moment is probably enough to keep the NZDF running, but it's not really planning for the future. For example, at the Ohakea 'Air' Show in April I was saddened to see just how old some of the equipment that the RNZAF is using really is because successive governments have penny pinched and avoided making the tough decisions for 30 years or more. Kiwi ingenuity is a pretty strong instinct though, and it made me proud to see how well the RNZAF was making the most of what they've got; but the sooner the new helicopters arrive (and a decent number of them too!), the better! A new medium transport aircraft would be a good idea for the RNZAF: as Dave has said in another thread, retiring the Andovers without replacing them was really stupid. And the 5 Hercules aren't enough either, so two more would be a bonus. And as for Clark wanting to be closer to the UN: why would you want to be associated with the UN? The people of Dafur have been counting on the UN to help them, and look where it's gotten them? Meanwhile, at the UN HQ in New York, Kofi and Co pussyfoot around drinking & eating and living it up while thousands die. I could name a few more examples of other "Dafur's" around the globe, past and present, where the UN has talked and talked and talked and talked.........! The US certainly isn't a great lead to follow, either; but if my choice was UN or US, I think I'd go the latter - but only just! ;D
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Post by Calum on May 30, 2006 23:05:32 GMT 12
I believe the ADF DCP (Defence Capabilty Plan) is due out around June 9. That will gove us a good indication of where the government sees the ADF going in the next 10 years, including aquisitions.
Theres some pretty big ticket items on the agenda
1. 3 Air Warfare Destroyers 2. 2 LPH's 3. Up 100 F-35s 4. Up to 40 more medium Troop Lift Helo's 5. 4 C-17's (ordered) 6. 6 737 AEW A/C (on the way) 7. 4? A330 MRTT's (on the way) 8. Caribou replacement (C-235 or C-27J) 9. Possibily more C-130J's 10. Likely more CH-47's 11. Funding for new training helicopter 12. 70 odd M1A1 AIM's (on the way)
And thats only of the top of my head...
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Post by steve on May 31, 2006 2:09:20 GMT 12
Aus is certainly planning for the future (with serious concerns from the north) and the increase in defence spending is really a semi war type budget...very substantial indeed. As I have said before in percentage terms of GDP NZ does not need to spend the planned increases that Aus have planned...Defence has been really low priority here until recently and bottom line there are no votes in any increases unless we get a substantial scare..
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Post by Dave Homewood on Jun 1, 2006 22:16:56 GMT 12
There has always been a lot of talk of Australia being terrified of the might of the Indonesian armed forces. However last night I saw on the news about the earthquake there and they stated there were only three helicopters engaged in rescue work, and it seems the Government and military are about as organised as they were in New Orleans. I don't think they are much threat if they cannot even put a few more choppers into action for humanitarian work.
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Post by steve on Jun 1, 2006 23:21:10 GMT 12
True...but also keep in mind that there are 200 milllion up there in a corrupt enviroment with a military ready to collapse a govt at any time. I believe that NZ has moved to far apart from Aus in defence concepts. Lets consider this...Australia has 5 times the popultion of NZ and a economy 7 times the size ...NZ spends approx 1 billion per year on total defence and the Aussies feel obliged to spend 19 Billion ($A) on regional defence which gives us security on the cheap...The recent labour govt long term DSIs is over due and increases the defence vote to 1.5% GDP over time... off topic.....skyhawk sale not approved by US state dept because of the advanced f16 weapons systems ... what a shame!
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Post by Calum on Jun 4, 2006 11:12:01 GMT 12
Indonesia is no threat to Australia. Their military is really a internal security force. Having seem some of the Indonesia military close up I don't lose any sleep over their capabilty.
In the 1960's the Indonesians seemed to be used as the bogeyman to justify everything (like terrorisim today) but even then I doubt they had the capability to really threaten Australia.
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Post by corsair67 on Jun 5, 2006 22:53:55 GMT 12
The main worry about Indonesia is not so much who is in charge at the moment, but what could happen if one of the "loose cannons" waiting in the wings eventually takes over.
As we've all seen, there are quite a few terrorist groups active in Indonesia which the Indonesian military don't seem to have much luck and/or interest in keeping under control, so heaven forbid they ever manage to gain a foothold in Jakarta!
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Post by steve on Jun 6, 2006 1:23:03 GMT 12
Exactly....One thing is for sure.. Australia will never forget the Darwin bombings of WW2 and the serious threat off having to adopt the policy of losing the north and trying to defend the east coast...I understood from Aussie Defence policy of the past is that if the balloon went up they would rely on the Kiwis to help defend their east coast while they attended to the north...I suspect I am years out of date! I am confident that there is no national (country to country)threat to Aus (except terriorism) at present ...however in 10 years ...who knows
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Post by Calum on Jun 6, 2006 22:37:06 GMT 12
The REAL worry with Indonesia is that it will fracture Yugoslava style...
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Post by steve on Jun 6, 2006 23:21:16 GMT 12
Yes that would be a nightmare situation...Look at E Timor round two>
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