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Post by adzze on Jan 11, 2011 11:19:47 GMT 12
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Post by strikemaster on Jan 11, 2011 13:44:49 GMT 12
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Post by alanw on Jan 11, 2011 20:06:45 GMT 12
Well I guess we can now (more or less) count on a Cold War II!! I guess we can now count on an arms race II. Some interesting items from the above article. I find it interesting that the Chinese move along some similar parallels to their Soviet Counterparts. The Super sized Carrier killer missile -really nothing new there, the Soviets had developed different types of Anti Carrier missiles, such as: 1960's AS-4 Kitchen 1070's SS-N-22 SUNBURN 1980's AS-20 KAYAK (just to name a few, we're talking range 300-400 km's with 300-400kg warheads (air/sub launched). The USN had Carrier defense in the Grumman F14 Tomcat series with the AIM 54 Phoenix. These days F 18 Hornet with AIM 120 AMRAAM Point defense in Sea Sparrow, Phalanx etc. Would that have saved USN carriers? From war games, mostly. However some always got through. Why the Soviets basically sought to saturate the USN battle groups defenses. That China has a missile like this is not un-typical in my opinion following their Russian comrades - will they work is another story -another question how will they deliver the missile if the US carriers stay out range of land based ones? The carrier China has, the Shi Lang, is the old Soviet Navy Varyag which has a sloped flight deck, and is smaller than her US Navy counterparts. Will China continue with this type or build a new type? if they continue, I see some operational problems in the amount of aircraft able to be carried/sortied. If a new type how will they build it??? China is decades behind the US Navy, just as the Russians found out with their carrier training, it was not easy. Do we need to take the Chinese seriously? Yes, just as we took the Soviets. Whilst the press are obviously putting their slant on this to make the Chinese look impressive, a comment at the end of the article needs to be remembered Quote " The “pace and scale” of the PLA’s modernization has been “broad and sweeping”, the Pentagon said. But, for now, China’s modern army “remains untested" unquote That and something which kept the Soviets in Check! MAD-Mutually Assured Destruction. For anyone interested in a Carrier battle scenario with Carrier Killer Missiles read a book called "The Sixth Battle" by Barrett Tillman -while using 1980-90's USN equipment it's still good reading and could easily translate into a Chinese/USN scenario
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Post by adzze on Jan 11, 2011 22:10:00 GMT 12
Wow, they're not wasting any time, that's for sure! The Chengdu J-20 has already undergone its first test flight, which according to reports lasted 15 minutes, with the landing gear down throughout...
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Post by strikemaster on Jan 11, 2011 22:15:44 GMT 12
From what I have read the Chinese plan to build their own new carriers. Purchasing the Melbourne was part of their RND. I'm not sure if it has been scrapped as yet. It was supposed to have been 20 years ago.
I guess it is lucky that they have no allies or bases outside of small communist countries, and nothing in the Pacific, unlike the US.
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Post by obiwan27 on Jan 12, 2011 6:54:37 GMT 12
I think "Cold War II" is about right, what with the ideological opposition of systems of government and freedom of speech etc. Economically though the US and China are very similar, but financially the US is in very poor shape compared to China. The military indsutrial complex must be rubbing their hands with glee. It's not so much the Chinese military buildup/modernisation that is a problem. It's the fact that it's a centralised, totalitarian type of government, driven by a party elite that has strong ties to the military and will do anything to retain power over the country. It has lots of internal strife kept under control by the police, military and paramilitary forces. For example Tibet, and other ethnic regions (forget the name but the Muslim region that flared up during the Olympics) plus all the troubles caused by land grabs for developers and the government. How well the Chinese government keeps a lid on internal dissent, while keeping most of it's people 'happy' is a key factor as well as how it might be influenced in the future when confronted with issues of how to feed its people and it's burgeoning economy with the necessary raw materials. Perhaps it has the population growth issue under control but these other factors, coupled with the system of government cause more concerns, than they do ally any fears. It is ironic that the biggest success of Mao was to disenfranchise landowners and endow the peasants with land as well as improvements in education and health. (Not forgetting of course, the disasters of 'The Great Leap Forward and 'The Cultural Revolution'.) Many of the peasants and ordinary Chinese are having their land taken off them and the poorest can't afford basic medical care. Will they take the route of 20th Century Imperial Japan in the future? There's a question for any aspiring history/foreign politics student.
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shane
Squadron Leader
Posts: 117
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Post by shane on Jan 12, 2011 7:31:04 GMT 12
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Post by Dave Homewood on Jan 12, 2011 9:29:05 GMT 12
If a cold war develops between the USA and China, which one will NZ side with? We're more aligned with China now economically than ever before. It will stuff our economy to pull away from China, but probably will also do so to stay with them as the Yanks will withdraw investments. A tricky situation for NZ.
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Post by strikemaster on Jan 12, 2011 11:15:33 GMT 12
TBH I can't see a cold war arising. The Chinese are moving towards a westernised society and they rely on the west for trade very heavily. To put pressure on the US would make no economic sense. If they did that they would go down the dunny much like the Soviets did. Mind you, that's not to say they couldn't survive for a VERY long time or that I know everything they do. Which I don't. I can't see NZ siding with a communist country over a democratic ally either. The only way I could see China being a problem is if they decided to do a 1930's Japan type trick and invade a few SE Asian countries. I'm not sure if NK and Vietnam would give support to them, but they might. Its an interesting political fish bowl.
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Post by chinapilot on Jan 12, 2011 15:25:33 GMT 12
err...don't think NZ needs to worry about who to side with...the Chinese will have contingency plans drawn up on what they would want to do with NZ/OZ.
Interesting scenario with many new citizens of both countries probably still with loyalties towards the 'Motherland'...
As for Vietnam they are extremely concerned and are gearing up accordingly [Don't forget they won the last border war with China and there is no love lost there]
It wouldn't take much for the Chinese to establish bases in the Pacific. With money to spend and a permanent presence they would offer more than a few 'Western' tourists...
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Post by Dave Homewood on Jan 12, 2011 17:23:26 GMT 12
So you think if a genuine Cold War situation develops as was sugegsted that NZ will just continue as usual trading with both sides? I don't think so, someone will put the squeeze on till NZ decided who they like the best.
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Post by oldnavy on Jan 12, 2011 18:41:27 GMT 12
Wow!! It actually flew!
On who should NZ side with in the event of a cold war, I think the greatest shame is that the topic seems to draw conversation. NZ should recognise it is firmly in the Western Alliance, and act accordingly. Be certain, a small totally undefended country like NZ will need outside help, and to try to remain neutral will leave them completely exposed to either side.
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Post by Dave Homewood on Jan 12, 2011 21:44:13 GMT 12
I'm not referring to defence though ON, I am referring to economy. We used to have strong trading partners in the great western alliance and one by one they abandoned New Zealand over the years so NZ was forced to go its own way and economically tie in relations with China and other less US-British thinking nations, just to keep the economy going. If there is another cold war (which is not a shooting war, just a We've Got More than You stand off, where does NZ stand by cutting economic ties with China so it's on the 'right' side with defence relations? Up shit creek because the western Allies won't want to reignite the economic ties they have severed over the years with us. not unless they are selling us arms for a war that won't happen.
Neutrality will leave NZ exposed defensively yes, but a cold war will not mean people are shooting anyhting more than their mouths off and NZ won't win economically on either side of the fence as far as I can see unless we go back into the arms trade. If it turns to a shooting war then maybe it will have to be every man for himself in NZ. Already there are hundreds of thousands more Chinese in this country than there were in the last Cold War, and a shit load more Americans too. Who knows what would happen to the average kiwi who want to liv a simple, quiet life?
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Post by kiwithrottlejockey on Jan 12, 2011 21:59:08 GMT 12
If a cold war develops between the USA and China, which one will NZ side with? We're more aligned with China now economically than ever before. It will stuff our economy to pull away from China, but probably will also do so to stay with them as the Yanks will withdraw investments. A tricky situation for NZ. The American economy is so in debt to the Chinese that a cold war would most likely stuff the American economy if (when?) that credit that is propping up the indebted American economy is turned-off.
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Post by Dave Homewood on Jan 12, 2011 22:43:48 GMT 12
I wonder if anyone saw this coming when America shut down all its own industry and shifted manufacturing offshore to China. I have to admit I suspected this would happen.
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Post by strikemaster on Jan 12, 2011 23:00:44 GMT 12
That's the point I was trying to make, Dave. The US rely's on China for manufacture but China rely's on the US (and other western countries) for cash. Without the US etc there would be no stealth fighter or Carrier. The money has to come from somewhere. They opened their boarders a long time ago so they wouldn't go down the Soviet path and while they are far from squeaky clean, they are getting squeakier by the day. Another question is how long before they ditch communism in its truest form? Realistically that's already started. If they became democratic (cue the Rachael Hunter quote) then it would be a hell of a lot harder for NZ to decide which way to go. Oh, Ido love a good hypothetical. :-)
As for it all happening as you say, China has been milking the cow for a while and the money would never be going to charity. It was inevitable it would be invested in its Military.
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Post by chinapilot on Jan 12, 2011 23:15:58 GMT 12
China is awash in cash...not just 'foreign' cash but mostly self generated. In fact the economy is so hot that curbs are being put on house purchases.
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Post by adzze on Jan 12, 2011 23:26:33 GMT 12
That's the thing - people talk about the symbiosis between the US (demand) and China (supply); but I suspect they forget about the growing Chinese domestic market. There's over a billion people in that market don't forget - within a couple of generations they may not be highly export dependant at all.
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Post by chinapilot on Jan 13, 2011 0:18:10 GMT 12
Spot on adzze...Have a look at their domestic air services, let alone train and bus services. The domestic market is huge and traveling around you see enormous amounts of tourists seeing their own country.
The 'drive' is immense also...it was announced yesterday that Beijing will have a new airport in 5 years and you can bet it will.
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Post by strikemaster on Jan 13, 2011 0:27:21 GMT 12
That's what I mean by change. I wasn't aware they were growing that fast tho. They are fast becoming a capitalist society whether they want to or not. If they become democratic it'll mean the goal posts will have shifted quite dramatically and the 2 sides will blur.
I haven't been there in 20 years, some of the Chinese colleagues I work with have pointed out a great deal has changed since then. A stealth fighter that flies? I guess it is.
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