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Post by baronbeeza on Feb 2, 2012 0:17:36 GMT 12
A secret United States military report says that the Taleban, backed by Pakistan, are set to retake control over Afghanistan after Nato-led forces withdraw from the country, Britain's Times of London reports.
www.stuff.co.nz/world/middle-east/6351234/Taleban-to-retake-Afghanistan-reportWhile I have no doubt this is the case I am somewhat annoyed to see the media's stance on this. We have leaked Top Secret documents (supposedly) that are then displayed to all in the public domain. The Times and the BBC are named in the Stuff article, How much of the article is true may be open to debate. It appears to me that the media are quite happy to get involved in the making of history rather than their job, - the reporting of events. All this while Defence planners and politicians are working on battle plans and exit strategies. If any of the above has any credence then I can imagine the troops on the ground, the ones risking their lives, are chuffed with it all. I think we can see the Pakistan stance is becoming more apparent though and I think it is going to have major repercussions for NZ in coming years. India will be forced to react very soon.... the obvious would be to have an very public military upgrade. I only hope the 'N' word doesn't feature too often. |
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Post by Dave Homewood on Feb 2, 2012 1:13:00 GMT 12
In the past week I have spent many hours talking with a good friend of mine who is home on leave after a tour on the front lines in the Afghan war, an He was there up till December on a six and a half month tour, as infantry, a fighting medic in a forward recce platoon - ie the oens who see the shit first - every day they were in the front lines they were contacting the enemy and involved in fighting. They enemy is everywhere there. Taliban, insurgents, the 'ten dollar Taliban'. Wherever they move the locals tip off the Taliban of their movements. They don't trust anyone, the locals don't trust them. The viscious way the enemy fights there exceeds anything you could imagine.
He lost several good mates from his platoon and his company, a good mate of his lost both his legs to an IED, and his best mate was shot in the head, and wounded badly. My friend is a good man, and I have the utmost respect for him. Always did have when we were younger but now moreso. Hearing the shit he's gone through out there it makes me sick, fearful for his safety, very sad, and so proud to know him. Having heard the things that he as an individual and the men in his unit have gone through in the past seven months, I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that the Taliban are not going to retake control, they already have it. And the British and American and other Allied troops there are wasting money and good men staying there. They will never rid Afghanistan of the evil that pervades there, sadly.
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Post by baronbeeza on Feb 2, 2012 1:50:39 GMT 12
Perhaps it is preparing us for the obvious then. The cause is already lost and now the military wants a public outcry along the lines of 'Bring the Troops Home'. That way it is not seen as yet another 'draw' for the US Defence forces. It would be an early withdrawal brought on by public opinion. A tactical 'leak'.
Regards Pakistan, I think we can see the sheltering of Bin Laden and the examination of the stealth helicopter by the Chinese for what it is.
India now has a dilemma.. they are saying the build up is to defend the Chinese border but China will be more than happy to continue supply Pakistan in the interim.
The US until now has been allied with Pakistan, - will we get to see yet another American flip... After-all, once the withdrawal from Afghanistan is complete the US need not be concerned with that border any longer.
The US arms manufactures will most certainly chase the Dollar if India starts spending up large.
The US base in Darwin is not so far from this action. It may be seen to be safe ground by the Yanks but it is also going to draw Australia into the equation.
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Post by flyinkiwi on Feb 2, 2012 8:04:39 GMT 12
The US arms manufactures will most certainly chase the Dollar if India starts spending up large. They're way ahead of you mate. Sold India the P8, new C-130's, C-17s, Harpoons, but missed out on the big sale of 126 F-16INs or F/A-18 E/Fs to the Dassault Rafale - apparently the close combat maneuvering characteristics of the European marques were superior to the American offerings, but Eurofighter was too expensive. Needless to say the French are over the moon. Sorry about the thread drift. |
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Post by flyjoe180 on Feb 2, 2012 8:07:39 GMT 12
We know a small South Pacific nation that can take some of those F16s off the Americans' hands  |
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Post by baronbeeza on Feb 2, 2012 11:22:46 GMT 12
Yep fk, I was aware of some of those. Even NZ has sold aircraft to India. I was trying to portray the dilemma the US now has and where the pressure is coming from. I have not been following the Indian thing too closely, their military has been building up for years. In years gone by it was the Navy that was receiving the cash but not throwing too much at the Yanks. The aircraft ventures on the other hand have the US in the game and you can only imagine what Pakistan thinks of that. Does anyone here think it is possible that the US have basically sacrificed Afghanistan in order to go and chase the arms sales Dollars on offer with India. As regarding the Darwin expansion. www.ntnews.com.au/article/2012/02/02/286571_ntnews.htmltheconversation.edu.au/is-a-us-marine-base-in-darwin-really-a-good-idea-4260The establishment of a permanent US Marine base in Darwin could have catastrophic consequences for the Darwin community if their reputation in other Pacific rim bases is anything to go by.There will, of course, be a lot of talk about boosting the Northern Territory economy and strengthening the Australia-US alliance. Darwin, however, is a small city with a population of less than 130,000, of whom around 10 per cent are Indigenous Australians. A hefty Australian military presence in the city accounts for a further 8 per cent of the population. It has the youngest median age of any Australian city and the highest population turnover of any major city: the 2006 census recorded that 46 per cent of the population had changed in the five years since the previous census.
I work in Darwin and can see the town being heavily affected with even more military about, and 'foreigners' at that. It will be a heavy price for the Aussies to pay... and I really don't see it helping regional stability at all. Many Ockers would see the benefits of a large force of NZ Defence personnel there.. it would be more palatable to the populace also. |
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Post by The Red Baron on Feb 2, 2012 21:10:35 GMT 12
U.S. plans to halt Afghan combat role early, Kabul surprised
The United States appears to have taken Kabul by surprise by announcing plans to end its Afghan combat role earlier than expected, and coinciding with a secret report that the Taliban is confident it can grab back control of the ravaged country.
Exit...stage left again....let the locals sort it out.
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Post by Dave Homewood on Feb 2, 2012 21:19:31 GMT 12
It is the best way forward for the Allies. The only other option is for the Allies to be fully let off the leash and complete waste the Afghanis. That way would result in huge collatoral damage and loss of civilian lives, and then an Allied run regime would have to be put in place, the relgious fanatacism removed, the opium poppy industry destroyed, and the entire population re-educated into civilised thinking. It would take generations to turn the place into a respectable, peaceful country after fully conquering and colonialising them, but it will simply never happen now as the good old days of Queen Victoria are over.
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Post by ngatimozart on Feb 2, 2012 23:36:45 GMT 12
The US arms manufactures will most certainly chase the Dollar if India starts spending up large. They're way ahead of you mate. Sold India the P8, new C-130's, C-17s, Harpoons, but missed out on the big sale of 126 F-16INs or F/A-18 E/Fs to the Dassault Rafale - apparently the close combat maneuvering characteristics of the European marques were superior to the American offerings, but Eurofighter was too expensive. Needless to say the French are over the moon. Sorry about the thread drift. Yea but what are the ASW & ASuW electronics in the P8(I) that the Indians have got. It certainly won't be US stuff because the US are very paranoid about technology transfer and the Indians are very keen on acquiring technology through transfer so much, that they in fact stipulate it in their purchase agreements. So I wonder if the ASW, ASuW technology in the P8(I) maybe European (such as EADS) off the shelf stuff or Israeli. The US wouldn't sell the Wedgetail to India so the Indians got Il 76 Mainstays converted to AEW by the Israelis. |
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Post by htbrst on Feb 3, 2012 5:43:52 GMT 12
They were desperate for the order, so not only are they getting whats included in the USN ones, but some nice extras like a MAD boom and an extra radar for 360 degree coverage (alongside some air-to-air modes)
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Post by The Red Baron on Feb 3, 2012 8:12:12 GMT 12
No matter how sofisticated the weaponary no one has been able to sort out Afghanistan from Ghengis Khan through to George Bush.
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Post by ngatimozart on Feb 3, 2012 22:18:51 GMT 12
No matter how sofisticated the weaponary no one has been able to sort out Afghanistan from Ghengis Khan through to George Bush. Yep and none of them have ever learned. It's always the guys & girls like us that have to go and sort out the mess with our blood that the bloody kings, princes and polies make. Bush was real thick, especially after the beating the Soviets had taken. IMHO Afghanistan is best left alone and let them sort their own lives out. Same with Pakistan even if it does have nukes. The Indians are building 12 SSBNs for their navy. That is how much treasure they are willing to invest. It looks like that after they get the first 126 Rafales there could be another 40 odd ordered. They have also just bought a few hangars fullof Su 30s. |
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Post by baronbeeza on Feb 4, 2012 0:13:05 GMT 12
Bush was real thick, especially after the beating the Soviets had taken. IMHO Afghanistan is best left alone and let them sort their own lives out. I watched Fahrenheit 911 again last night. The funny thing was it made more sense than many documentaries we get to see. Certainly the case with the 7pm or 7.30pm Sunday night jobs. I am still amazed by how the US (and it's allies) cannot foresee how any intrusion is going to end. The Russians even showed them in Afghanistan just as the French did in VN. Really, the US are good at high tech stuff and they certainly go in with force and commitment. There is no denying that. It is the finishing they need to brush up on. From what I have seen they often exit leaving their friendly forces in the lurch. Didn't the French resistance have issues before the fall of France as well ? I feel sorry for the Afghan military and Police forces, - they will be the ones that have much suffering ahead of them. I suspect that they will still end up on the loosing team. Some of the citizens of VN are still treated as outcasts a generation later. The Somalis seemed to have the right idea, none of them wanted to get buddy with the coalition forces there. I would much rather see Pakistan and India have their own little mini cold war. I shudder at the thought of what could go wrong if we see interference there. China has more sense, - they have not declared war on so many of the countries in the world in the past few centuries. I have to feel a little sorry for them also, if you look at China's borders they have a bad neighbour relationship with many of them. |
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Post by adzze on Feb 4, 2012 8:59:44 GMT 12
I am still amazed by how the US (and it's allies) cannot foresee how any intrusion is going to end. The Russians even showed them in Afghanistan just as the French did in VN. Really, the US are good at high tech stuff and they certainly go in with force and commitment. There is no denying that. It is the finishing they need to brush up on. From what I have seen they often exit leaving their friendly forces in the lurch. Didn't the French resistance have issues before the fall of France as well ? I feel sorry for the Afghan military and Police forces, - they will be the ones that have much suffering ahead of them. I suspect that they will still end up on the loosing team. Some of the citizens of VN are still treated as outcasts a generation later. The Somalis seemed to have the right idea, none of them wanted to get buddy with the coalition forces there. I would much rather see Pakistan and India have their own little mini cold war. I shudder at the thought of what could go wrong if we see interference there. China has more sense, - they have not declared war on so many of the countries in the world in the past few centuries. I have to feel a little sorry for them also, if you look at China's borders they have a bad neighbour relationship with many of them. China has been concerned with maintaining the wholeness of its own territories and doesn't have a history of expansion (notwithstanding the early colonisation of Taiwan, and the huge diaspora of Chinese around the world). But because of the way they have shown they're not afraid to crush internal rebellion and control their media - and with their disputed claims around the Spratlys (and a few other places) - it will be interesting to see how their foreign policy develops once their economy begins to rival that of the US in one or two decade's time. I think if there will be a mini-cold war in the region it will be between India and China. While India is far behind the latter in terms of industrialisation and alleviation of poverty, it's also growing rapidly and as noted elsewhere they are spending up large on military. I suspect that's a large reason why China is providing aid to Pakistan. |
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Post by ngatimozart on Feb 5, 2012 21:35:49 GMT 12
China has been concerned with maintaining the wholeness of its own territories and doesn't have a history of expansion (notwithstanding the early colonisation of Taiwan, and the huge diaspora of Chinese around the world). But because of the way they have shown they're not afraid to crush internal rebellion and control their media - and with their disputed claims around the Spratlys (and a few other places) - it will be interesting to see how their foreign policy develops once their economy begins to rival that of the US in one or two decade's time. I think if there will be a mini-cold war in the region it will be between India and China. While India is far behind the latter in terms of industrialisation and alleviation of poverty, it's also growing rapidly and as noted elsewhere they are spending up large on military. I suspect that's a large reason why China is providing aid to Pakistan. China does have a history of expansion. What do you think Tibet is? How do you think China got to be the size it is today? It is a very ancient civilization that has even tried to invade Japan more than once. The Great Wall was built to keep the northern hordes of barbarians (Mongols -same people as Ghengis Khan) out but didn't and they eventually went on to become one of the great imperial Chinese dynasties. China fought a war against the Soviet Union in 1937 -38, and at the same time it had it's own civil war, occupation of Manchuria by Japan and Japanese military expansion into previously untouched areas of China. This was in the period of the warlords and it was only the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, a period of about 40 years, that the whole sorry tragedy from the fall of the last Emporer, to the rise of the new imperial order, in the form of the Communist Party of China, was bought to a close. The old imperial dynasty had lost the mandate of heaven and so if fell. A new imperial dynasty now has the mandate of heaven to rule and so it shall until it too loses the mandate. Such is the way of the Middle Kingdom. It was once a great imperial and military force to be feared and so it shall be again. One tome taught in every military academy is the Sun Tzu Ping Fa, which is a work on strategy written by Sun Tzu, IIRC an Imperial General, about 2000 years ago. What was current then strategically speaking is still so today and I strongly recomend it as a read. He says war is the final form and ultimate tool of diplomacy and is to be only used when all else fails. IIRC the last foreigner to succesfully invade Afghanistan was a Macedonian King by the name of Alexander the Great, about 2315 years ago, give or take a couple of years. He went walkabout with his army for quite along time and never made it back home. |
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Post by baronbeeza on Feb 5, 2012 23:21:56 GMT 12
I realise I have slashed a lot here. I did find this paragraph about the Boxer Rebellion interesting though. Oh, and this was in 1900. The Western powers saw China as primitive and ripe for exploitation - in many respects the last area of the world where territorial gains could be made as the days of rapidly expanding Empires were over. For the Americans, late to the scramble for an empire, China offered a chance to make up for missed opportunities and create a new market for its goods. At no point did the Western powers see China as an equal despite the fact that Chinese civilisation pre-dated their own www.historyofwar.org/articles/wars_boxer.htmlChina has territorial disputes with many of it's neighbours. You name whatever border and there is an issue. I personally trust the Chinese version of common sense and values of regional stability ahead of those of another major superpower. There is no doubt the whole of Asia is a troubled region and the Aussies should be concerned. Any expansion of the forces in Darwin has to be managed very carefully though. A wrong move there may inflame the situation drastically. Although I have not been to Afghanistan I have been in Vietnam and also Somalia (during hostilities). I could certainly see the trend and if we then think of Iraq it is easily to envisage the likely outcome of any future 'outings'. I personally would like to think John and Julia were discussing these matters rather than what transport aircraft is better to barrel roll. |
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