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Post by Dave Homewood on Jun 11, 2009 17:52:03 GMT 12
There seems to be growing cases every day now of people diagnosed with the so-called Swine Flu in NZ and every case I have heard of so far are people who have returned to or entered NZ from overseas.
The Government keeps assuring us it has the best possible screening process going on at airports, but it's obvious that the system is failing to catch these people as they are getting ill later. The latest case I heard was a nurse in an Auckland hospital now has it, worst case scenario as we all know how fast a virus sweeps through somewhere as unhealthy as a hospital.
I'm thinking back to the flu epidemic after WWI and how NZ managed to keep the flu totally out of this country for some time by ensuring that all people arriving in NZ by ship were quarrentined on that ship till it was certain there were no flu germs and then they were allowed ashore. This system worked perfectly till the Prime Minister himself, returning from the UK, decided he was better than everyone else and so decided not to bother with the quarentine period, and thus it's believed it was he or his party that carried the flu ashore to NZ, which caused many deaths and thousands ill in NZ.
If the pandemic really kicks off overseas, my opinion is they need to bring in the isolation and quarentine period again to stop any contact with mainland kiwis before they're confirmed totally clear. Is this going to be possible though? Or is it already too late with the people that they've let slip through the cordon already?
I seem to get every flu that's going every year so I'm getting a little worried about this one. And it seems with people coming back to NZ with it from the USA, Aussie, Asia and all sorts of other places, who knows how many mutated strains are now circulating.
I know that the episdemic in 1918-19 was a long time ago but does anyone here recall more recent epidemics such as the polio outbreaks in NZ, and how we can learn from them too?
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Post by lumpy on Jun 11, 2009 18:20:52 GMT 12
Dont think I'd be too worried about swine flu Dave . Its actually a comparativly mild flu , but does spread easily . Only the very young , elderly , or those with weakened immune systems are really at serious risk . The real problem is the potental for it affect large portions of the country in one go , and so putting esential services under huge pressure .
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Post by corsair67 on Jun 11, 2009 18:27:59 GMT 12
Don't panic, Capt. Mainwaring, don't panic! ;D
So far nearly all the cases of Swine Flu that have been confirmed in Australia have been very mild - but of course, as it is still quite early in the influenza season there is potential for it to develop into something more sinister.
Apparently, the H1N1 virus is different in that it seems to effect teenagers worse than anyone else in the general population! The university that I work at has been told that we should expect it to possibly have some impact on our student population over the next couple of months.
The thing that I find most appalling about this influenza epidemic is that the authorities are putting out material reminding people to cover their mouth and nose when they sneeze and to wash their hands after doing so - but people should know this already as part of general common sense and good manners!
As to trying to stop the entry of the virus into New Zealand - good luck!
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Post by flyjoe180 on Jun 11, 2009 18:37:06 GMT 12
Influenzas, SARS, and a range of other pandemics always come about at the same time as economic crises. Work it out.
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Post by Barnsey on Jun 11, 2009 18:47:34 GMT 12
The government here in Hong Kong has just shut all kindergartens and primary schools for 2 weeks after the first cases of person to person transmission in local school age children.
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Post by shorty on Jun 11, 2009 18:48:38 GMT 12
If you receive an email from the Health Department telling you not to eat tinned pork because of swine flu - ignore it. It's just spam!
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Post by flyjoe180 on Jun 11, 2009 18:51:12 GMT 12
;D
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Post by Dave Homewood on Jun 11, 2009 19:13:38 GMT 12
That's hilarious Shorty. Well done.
I think that's very wise of Hong Kong, Barnsey, kindergartens and primary schools are festering germ breeding grounds.
In relation to the prevention of spreading disease, something that annoyed me a few weeks ago on the news was a report about how some of the diseases that we all should be immunised against are apparently making a comeback because now many parents are neglecting to get their kids the FREE shots and so these once scarce and highly controlled diseases are on the rise agin. They had various logical points from medical practitioners trying to convince parents to immunise their kids, but the news decided to present the other side of the argument. They had this woman on there who says "I don't see why we need to immunise our children because the diseases are so rare it's a waste of millions of dollars." Unbelievable! Does she not realise that the disease is so rarely seen BECAUSE of the immunisation programme, and because total fickwuts like her are neglecting this one simple duty they are bringing the disease back! I think immunisation should be compulsory, not optional.
Mind you the if the un-immiunised all catch the disease and die, that's just natural selection I guess.
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shane
Squadron Leader
Posts: 117
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Post by shane on Jun 11, 2009 19:55:05 GMT 12
I've been watching the outbreak with interest since april im quite surprised at how fast its spread . In 6 years bird flu infected only about 400 people and killed nearly half of those that got it. In little more than a month swine flu has spread very fast with 7 countries reporting deaths from it and over 27000 infected. My Fiancee and I are off to Canada soon for a month so I scare her with every new update. But im not too worried thousands of people each year die of the seasonal flu each year. Unfortunately we have no natural immunity to swine flu and theres no vaccine for it. I bet we are going to have soooo much fun at the airports.
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Post by shorty on Jun 12, 2009 12:10:16 GMT 12
There was an article on the 1918 flu epidemic on "Sounds Historical" some months back (in relation to a book I think) where the story about the Prime Minister was exposed as an urban myth.
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Post by obiwan27 on Jun 12, 2009 12:21:24 GMT 12
I think it's sensible to take the normal hygiene precautions one should always take whether there is a pandemic or not. Cover your mouth and nose when sneezing or coughing but instead of just using your hand cough/sneeze into a handkerchief or tissue. Failing that the crook of your arm is handy to prevent spreading your germs everywhere. Lastly washing your hands after sneezing/coughing and going to the toilet especially when youve been to any public place e.g. shopping malls that are germ breeding grounds essentially.
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Post by Dave Homewood on Jun 12, 2009 13:31:08 GMT 12
I learned all of those things a long, long time ago. Sadly some people in society haven't.
Shorty, interesting about the urban myth. I think it was National Radio where I first heard that story.
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Post by shorty on Jun 12, 2009 13:49:24 GMT 12
Dave, I think the book was about the flu epidemic, and they were also recounting peoples experiences through it. It was about 4 or 5 months ago from memory. Maybe a google will turn up more?
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Post by ErrolC on Jun 12, 2009 14:10:56 GMT 12
Mind you the if the un-immiunised all catch the disease and die, that's just natural selection I guess. One problem with this is that the vaccines for many diseases are not 100% effective (a small percentage of those that receive shots are not protected). Herd immunity will protect these people, but if several % (the threshold varies with disease) of the population is not vaccinated, the chances are that they will get exposed at some point. Another problem is that kids shouldn't pay for their parent's mistakes. |
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Post by kiwithrottlejockey on Jun 12, 2009 19:44:22 GMT 12
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Post by FlyNavy on Jun 12, 2009 20:12:40 GMT 12
The news report at that URL above hardly puts things into perspective at all. These deaths from "regular flu related illness" have been amongst the elderly, with other illnesses (often exacerbated by the flu or the reverse - the flu is worse due to pre-existing illness). If you bother to listen or read about the so called 'swine flu' you will pick up that younger people with less mature immune systems are the worst affected (also as above, the already ill people in society are more adversely affected). However having younger people more affected by swine flu means it is more likely to spread (being also given more chance to mutate to a worse strain).
Notwithstanding that I saw an interview given by the Head of WHO now (who was the head of bird flu response in Hong Kong ten years ago) on the Jim Lehrer News Hour (US program repeated in Oz). She made it clear that her worry is that the less contagious ,but more deadly bird flu, will be given an opportunity to mutate - with the easily caught but less dangerous obviously swine flu - to produce a flu with the worst outcomes. Limiting incidents of swine flu will reduce the likelihood that it will come in contact with the very few instances (if any) of bird flu at moment (vaguely I recall her saying that there are a few cases of bird flu at moment). Also making the swine flu outbreak a pandemic is not a small step.
This easily caught swine flu virus has more chance to mutate by itself; because there are more instances for it to do so, if the spread is not checked as best as possible. This is also a concern until an appropriate vaccine is developed. Thank goodness that at the moment the swine flu is not as problematic as it may become. Already we know that 'ordinary' (with many variations of this ordinary) flu can mutate. Therefore it survives in a world where there are vaccines that need to change from year to year. Thank goodness the treatment for all these forms of flu works (in reasonably healthy people blah blah). Exception is bird flu. No treatment guaranteed so far.
Dismiss the sensible precautions required for NOT catching swine flu at your own risk. AND that news report at URL above is dated 28th of April - hardly an up to date report given the intense scrutiny of swine flu by relevant health officials since that time.
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Post by kiwithrottlejockey on Jun 12, 2009 21:07:56 GMT 12
Yes...it IS dated 28th April. Which means the total number of deaths from the ordinary flu in the USA alone will have risen way above the figure of 13,000 so far this year that was quoted in the article.
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Post by FlyNavy on Jun 12, 2009 21:14:34 GMT 12
My reference to the outofdateness of the article was to the information about swine flu which is evolving and expanding all the time. Swine flu is not ordinary flu. Yes it is mild at moment for most infected people but swine flu has the potential to itself have worse effects (until a suitable vaccine is developed for those most at risk in a few months). I don't believe you understand my point at all. Not my problem though.
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Post by stu on Jun 12, 2009 22:13:50 GMT 12
If you receive an email from the Health Department telling you not to eat tinned pork because of swine flu - ignore it. It's just spam! ;D ;D ;D They tried to phone me about it instead but all I got over the phone was crackling. |
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Post by baz62 on Jun 13, 2009 11:23:12 GMT 12
If you receive an email from the Health Department telling you not to eat tinned pork because of swine flu - ignore it. It's just spam! ;D ;D ;D They tried to phone me about it instead but all I got over the phone was crackling. Grooooaaaaannn people should be shot for puns like that!! ;D |
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