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Post by macnz on Jun 15, 2020 16:59:32 GMT 12
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Post by macnz on Jun 15, 2020 16:20:14 GMT 12
Air NZ is 52% NZ government-owned. " The $900 million loan facility will be offered "..in two tranches, with interest rates ranging from 7% to 9% a year and on condition that Air New Zealand would cancel its interim dividend worth NZ$123 million ($69.78 million), which Air New Zealand said it would." source: www.reuters.com/article/us-air-new-zealand-debt-idUSKBN216464Comment: Air New Zealand is not only bone-yarding? air worthy aircraft (15x 777 at least) but the ongoing cost (storage and leasing) to doing so is being carried by its shareholders- of which the NZ public are 52% (excl. institutional NZ shareholders). So even if we put aside the loan facility and the job keeper subsidy, the NZ public will still be outlaying for aircraft that perhaps a couple might be better served now with the Air Force than sitting in the OZ outback if someone just thought about it. Sorry guys it infuriates me, to read someone talk about having to scrimp and save $300m-600m for 2028, when effectively the taxpayer already have paid for access to assets (B777/A320s). A number of countries lease their government transports from their national carriers - Japan, Korea, Germany come immediately to mind. Their air forces still operate them but the asset is owned, maintained and upgraded by the national carrier. Given our ownership stake in AirNZ, and the company is undergoing dramatic restructuring, this might be the opportune time to setup the Air force with Air NZ to access air assets that avoids the usual tortured procurement path we debate about. The govt leases cars why cant it be the same for our air transport needs? Much more fiscally sustainable, but like you said:- maybe its just too sensible.
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Post by macnz on Jun 12, 2020 15:19:14 GMT 12
Probably the latter.
"The plan has 2028 as the year the replacements will be introduced into service, with an indicative cost of between $300 and $600 million Mark said deferring the replacement of the 757s had proven to be a good bet because more aircraft would become available as airlines look to sell their planes due to the effect of the coronavirus pandemic.I think that’s proven to be a good idea, because one of the things we never anticipated was Covid-19 and Covid-19 now has thrown off a whole whack of aircraft that are now surplus to requirements to the aviation companies that own them.”
Meanwhile we'll continue to bail out ANZ to the tune of $900m (plus whatever they may have claimed under Jobkeeper) and accept huge write downs of the 777 fleet as their largest shareholder? ...and let ANZ continue to disingenuously not refund NZ customers because the law doesn't compel them too? I wonder how far off the flight/airframe hours utility assumption we are, that treasury used in the original 757 procurement case? Another 8+ years before replacement - good grief charlie brown.
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Post by macnz on Jun 11, 2020 0:13:45 GMT 12
The 787-10s were replacing the 777-200s (oldest in the ANZ fleet), I think the 777-300s were (pre CoVid) slated to continue operating alongside the 787-9s and the 787-10s for the next few years as the long haul fleet. I believe the intention is to continue operating the 787-9s as the reduced long haul fleet. The 8x 787-10s weren’t scheduled for delivery until 2022 so given the outlook, chances are the 777-300s won’t be returning anytime in the next few years either. The demand for 777-300s was pretty strong prior to CoVid so if the NZ govt doesn’t ask for them, ANZ should have no problem flogging them off next year I should think.
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Post by macnz on Jun 10, 2020 15:24:15 GMT 12
The 777-300ERs reported to be younger (cica 2010) and interiors were refurbished in 2017 - so no extra needed to spend on outfitting for the VIPs/pollies. Just need to add a few secure comms, check if the model has ever been certified to fly to the Deep South, get some boys into some sim training, quick paint job and maybe we've solved the operability issue posed by our 757s this year? - I know I'm getting flippant now.
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Post by macnz on Jun 10, 2020 14:26:33 GMT 12
The RNZAF could probably get a cheap deal picking up some of the 321Neo slots from AirNZ. Given the current prices of used airliners and a general lack of cash can't see us getting anything but used airliners, although they might get their S*** together (MOD) this time and get a couple of extra airframes for cost control (Mil spares even for airliners are not interchangeble with Civil, so need a much larger spares holding than a civil reg aircraft). Given our low activity levels compared to airlines, wouldn't getting new-build just buy unused airframe (and engine?) hours when support becomes difficult due to the type dropping out of airline/cargo use sometime down the line? Given ANZ is about to drop their 4x own 777s (plus some leased ones) into the boneyard in Oz, I wonder why anyone hasn’t thought of leasing a couple to the Air Force to bridge the 757 issue? Taxpayer should be able to negotiate a pretty good deal because (1) we’re the biggest shareholder, (2) ANZ given $900m loan from us (3) ANZ already written them off their planning and financials. The 777s are used by many of the air logistic carriers. Considered more efficient and economical than 747s and 767s for the last decade, so if any conversion needed (cargo door for upper deck) its a commonplace conversion. ANZ would probably jump at chance to offset their leasing costs on the other unused 777s, and govt could contract them to continue to do the maintenance and certification (thus saving some more NZ jobs hopefully). So the 777s maybe a little big for the need but they are available now and the money spent predominantly recirculated in NZ. Would be nice to have more capacity than needed for a change I should think. I understand there is a mix of 200s and 300ERs - not sure which variant are owned vs leased. I’still support/hope NZ would get 2 A400Ms to properly fit out our strategic air capacity but in the interim, a couple of 777s is better than the status quo. Is the idea of leasing from ANZ that impractical? Read Here: www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/121778085/air-new-zealand-777-aircraft-heading-to-australian-boneyard
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Post by macnz on Nov 14, 2019 21:29:10 GMT 12
Nighthawknz thxs for infographic. - only missing China's Type 071 LPD (similar to San Antonio-class) @ 25,000 tonnes which China is building 7 & 1 for Thailand, and China's new LHD - Type 075 @40,000 tonnes which China is planning 3. I agree the Endurance 170 would be probably be the most ambitious our Navy should go, but then we will need to have at least a 1 frigate escort to accompany such an asset. So hopefully in the Future Surface combatant programme someone will see sense to return to a 4 frigate/ 2 Frigate & 2 Corvette fleet replacement.
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Post by macnz on Nov 14, 2019 21:06:44 GMT 12
Isn’t the 170 a helicopter carrier? NZ doesn’t have any navalised helicopters other than a few seasprites? DCP 2019: Maritime Helicopter Replacement 199. The eight existing Seasprite SH-2G(I), the last of their type, will reach the end of their service lives in the late 2020s. A new fleet of maritime helicopters will be acquired in order to support the naval patrol, sealift and combat capabilities. 200. Maritime helicopters offer surveillance, air transport and combat capabilities. Initial thinking on the replacement helicopters will need to determine the primary role of the aircraft, to ensure they are appropriately suited to complement planned replacements for the patrol, sealift and combat capabilities. Indicative dates: Industry engagement commences – 2020 Request for tender – 2024 Introduction into Service – 2028 Indicative capital cost: More than $1b ...won't be surprised if we opt to go with the NFH-90 to keep commonality & costs with the Air Forces' TTH-90s. Although I wouldn't object to some MV-22 Osprey to accompany any future LHD purchase.
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Post by macnz on Nov 14, 2019 20:00:29 GMT 12
ST (Engineering) Marine seems pretty competent shipyard. Just launched the eighth and final Independence-class Littoral Vessel (LMV) for the RSN. Contract was signed in 2013, first LMV delivered in 2017, 2 yrs and 8 vessels later... job done.
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Post by macnz on Nov 14, 2019 16:20:39 GMT 12
Ironic historical footnote: It was NZ First as coalition partner with National, that opposed exercising the option on the 2 additional ANZAC frigates back in 1989. Now, as the coalition partner with Labour, NZ First find themselves announcing some pretty substantial (overdue) defence procurements over the last 2 years. One only hopes commitments to the; SOPV, Strategic Sealift, Strategic airlift, & Frigate replacement programmes are allowed to proceed 'unmolested' over the next 3 years.
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Post by macnz on Nov 7, 2019 21:24:55 GMT 12
@ macnz thanks for both those posts. Have seen both the videos and nice to refresh myself of the Type 31 interview. Already have the OMT brochure on the Iver Huitfeld; its sits in the same folder with all the other material, including video, that I have acquired over the years about both the Iver Huitfeld and Absalon classes. no probs senob, happy to share. Sorry been away - so couldn't respond earlier. Likewise, I've followed the Iver Huitfeldt programme for some years and RDN. OMT was reported to have been the frontrunner ( earlier this year ) for Indonesia's Frigate modernisation program - 2 new frigates on a budget of USD$720m - based on the F370 platform. I recall the program required them to be built in Indonesia which OMT had no difficulties to accommodate. I've read no further reports as to where that competition has led since May this year but it would be interesting if Indonesia decided to produce another Iver Huitfeldt variant into the frigate domain in 2020, and see how that compares.
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Post by macnz on Nov 7, 2019 20:36:58 GMT 12
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Post by macnz on Nov 2, 2019 23:27:16 GMT 12
Insightful interview with John Howie, the chief executive of Babcock International's marine business about their fabrication & build plans for Type 31. A lot of de-risking to the delivery of the programme attributed to the OMT F370 design. Babcock credited a lot of data shared from the Danes (Iver Huitfeldt programme) in their confidence about the sustainment & affordability of the Type 31s. (6:14) Interestingly, looks like Babcock cooking into their T-31 design a digital asset management system (I-Support 360) to manage the maintenance/operation of the vessels. (Similar to IPMS found onboard the Iver Huitfeldts) See: 4:26-5:42 Here is a 2014 overview of the Iver Huitfeldt programme that reflects just how central a tenet sustainment & affordability was in the platform's design. www.ft.dk/samling/20141/almdel/FOU/bilag/20/1417702.pdf
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Post by macnz on Nov 2, 2019 22:41:04 GMT 12
The Hunter Class will have 5 key design differences to the T-26 to meet RAN requirements. You can listen to update from the Programme Director for BAE @timestamp 0:45-3:10. There is also an interesting interview about the dockyards being developed for the fabrication & assembly @timestamp 7:40
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Post by macnz on Oct 31, 2019 1:00:08 GMT 12
There is also the backlog in the Type 23s concurrent (PGMU) engine upgrade and deep life extension (LIFEX) refits and that are being juggled with the TYpe 26 & 31e construction programmes. Babcock has 3 drydocks overcrowded with Type 23s behind in schedule. Summary of where the Type 23s were at in 2019 can be found here: www.savetheroyalnavy.org/progress-on-extending-the-life-of-the-royal-navys-type-23-frigates/The idea was that the PGMU & LIFEX programmes were to complement the delivery schedule of the Type 26 & 31e - to enable a one for one decommissioning plan. This was to ensure 19 Frigates would always be active in the fleet through to 2045. There is a great inforgraphic depicting the plan here: www.savetheroyalnavy.org/making-sense-of-the-royal-navys-frigate-building-schedule/On Oct 23, the Secretary for Defence was updating the House of Commons Defence Select Committee. It was reported that of 23 major surface combat vessels, only 10 were active: HMS Queen Elizabeth (not yet operational) Albion (LPD), Defender, Dragon (T45), Montrose, Kent, Argyll, Sutherland, Northumberland and Westminster (T23s). Currently, the remaining fleet are all either awaiting refit or undergoing refit at Devonport. Delays in the LIFEX Frigate refits and remediation work to the Type 45s are contributing to lower than usual numbers of combat vessels available. Based on current UK shipbuilding situation and that the Type 26 build is also already on a "go-slow", I dont think the UK dockyards would foreseeable have the capacity to entertain building either the Type 31e or Type 26 in the UK for NZ before 2045 (or later) anyhow.
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Post by macnz on Oct 27, 2019 21:20:39 GMT 12
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Post by macnz on Oct 26, 2019 13:03:43 GMT 12
Notice its a new product name as well, it's earlier monkier was FTI Fregate de Taille Intermediaire - Intermediate size Frigate Greece signed a letter of Intent last month to become the first customer for the Belharra frigate - subject to financing - for two ships at an estimated €750 million per unit. French Govt signed a contract on April 20 for a program to build five for their Navy, on a budget of €3.8 billion which works out to be €760 million per unit. The two Greek vessels will be part of the first production run so Greece can get them at similar unit price. €750 million works out to be approx $NZD 1.3 billion per unit in current fx. Here's another profile on vessel : thaimilitaryandasianregion.wordpress.com/2017/04/27/fti-medium-size-frigates-france/
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Post by macnz on Oct 26, 2019 9:23:23 GMT 12
Reported in Defense News: LORIENT, France – The first steel cut has been made for the new French FDI (defense and intervention) frigate, the Admiral Ronarc’h-class, which will be known on the export market as the Belh@arra. Defense Minister Florence Parly attended the ceremony on Oct. 24 here in the company of Greek naval chief of staff Adm. Nicolaos Tsunis, whose government has entered into an exclusive negotiation with Naval Group to procure two of these vessels. Jane Coombs, New Zealand’s ambassador to France, and the Polish defense attaché also were present, indicating that these two countries may also be interested in procuring this mid-sized frigate which can be adapted to meet their specific needs. The FDI is a 4,500 metric ton vessel with an overall length of 120m. Its reversed bow gives it a longer waterline length to better hold a speed of up to about 27 knots achieved by the Combined Diesel and Diesel (CODAD) engines. It can sail 5,000 nautical miles before needing to be refuelled and will be able to stay at sea for up to 45 days. The aft helicopter deck is designed for an NH90 helicopter. Its weapons include the MU90 torpedo, MBDA’s Aster 15 and 30 missiles and Nexter’s 20mm Narwhal gun....Read More: www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2019/10/25/naval-group-starts-construction-on-frances-newest-frigate/Nice speculation, but I recall a pretty expensive option, if there is any substance to the interest. I doubt, Naval Group would allow to be built outside of France. Here is an old profile on the vessel: defense-update.com/20161018_belharra.html
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Post by macnz on Oct 14, 2019 3:14:44 GMT 12
In answer to last question. Found on paper it looks like one can just squeeze into C-130J
Bushmaster Dimensions: Mass 15,400 kg (33,951 lb) Length 7.18m Width 2.48m Height 2.65m
C-130J Interior Dimensions: Cabin Length (excluding ramp) 12.19 m Cabin Length (including ramp) 15.44 m Max. Width 3.12 m Max. Height 2.74 m Total useable volume 4,551 cubic ft /128.9 m3 Max. Payload, 2.5 g 41,790 lbs / 18,955 kg
c-130J Dimensions: Operating Empty Weight 75,562 lbs / 34,274 kg Max. Fuel Weight (internal) 45,900 lbs / 20,519 kg Max. Overload Takeoff Weight 175,000 lbs / 79,380 kg Max. Normal Landing Weight 130,000 lbs / 58,965 kg
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Post by macnz on Oct 14, 2019 1:15:54 GMT 12
Back in July Janes reported: " Ron Mark also indicated that the Bushmaster 4×4 protected mobility platform, produced by Thales Australia, is likely to fulfil the requirement for protected vehicle mediums. For this project [the New Zealand Ministry of Defence] is working with the Australian Defence Force and related suppliers to examine whether further co-operation on this class of vehicle is the best way forward for New Zealand," said Mark. "I will bring a firm proposal to [the] cabinet next year. He added that the protected vehicle mediums project is intended to provide the New Zealand Army with similar levels of capability and protection to the Bushmasters operated by the New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) Special Forces, of which there are believed to be five. Vehicles procured through the project will undertake roles including troop transport, command and communications, and casualty evacuation, said Mark. " www.janes.com/article/89653/new-zealand-approves-military-vehicle-projects...last I heard, ADF had a surplus stockpile of used Bushmasters while the ADF awaited the delivery of 1100 Thales Hawkei replacements that were expected to go into full production in 2020. There was also a report in the Australian in September 2019 that there was a 12 month blow-out to the 2 year delivery timetable. Presumably, NZDF is keen to pick up some low mileage bushmasters (that fits our budget), so has this affected when NZ could procure the bushmasters? and has there been any news on when the proposal was expected to go to Cabinet? One other question: Can the C130-Js airlift the bushmaster? I've only heard of the C-17s airlifting bushmasters for the ADF. If the C130-Js are chosen & cant carry the bushmaster, does this mean NZDF see future bushmasters only being sealifted to theatre of operation?
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