Post by ngatimozart on Aug 27, 2012 15:59:06 GMT 12
I thought would start this thread because the discussion on the More Afghanistan Deaths thread was being exanded beyond the thread topic. I think that this is a topic that is very wide ranging and it is my belief that we will be become involved in a similar situation again in the future. The one thing about Afghanistan is that it is very complicated because it has a military, political, security, diplomatic, religious, cultural components and I would also think a clash of civilizations.
Afghanistan cannot be looked at on its own in a singular, geographical, spatial, temporal and geopolitical context. It is part of larger political religious, cultural and civilizational processes that are geographically spread over an area extending from North Africa to Indonesia and Persia (Iran) to Pakistan in particular. However there are some problems that we have that are part of our makeup and upbringing.
Western thinking (as in European, North American, Australian & NZ) instead of holistically looking at issues, tend to reduce issues down and deal with them in isolation - siloed thinking like us science types do. We also deal with non European cultures by demeaning, devaluing or denigrating their way of life, their beliefs, their knowledge, their cultures etc. This is truly not just a western thing but because of the absolute dominance, politically, economically, militarily and through colonisation, the west has obtained an unprecedented domination of the planet and its peoples. This has been happening since the 15th century and really got going from the 18th century. Just look at the entertaniment media like music & movies, TV values etc., - where do they originate? Nowadays 85% of all knowledge is produced in the west. I have included this just as background about what is behind some of the decisions we make and why we look at others as we do. It helps us to deal with any biases we may need to confront or we come across.
I would like to look at the geopolitical issues that face the region and how they may impact on NZ & NZDF. First of all we have the possibility of a failed nuclear armed state (Pakistan) that at present has insurgency problems of its own with Taleban and other undesireables occupying a large part of its own territory in defiance of Islamabad and the Central Govt. These undesireables are also operating across the border in Afghanistan with some impunity and lots of cross polination. Why I think Pakistan has the potential to become a failed state, is that when ISAF pulls out of Afghanistan in 2014/15 Afghanistan is going to become an all out civil war, overspilling into Pakistan, further destabilising the country especially in the north west, where the Pakistani taliban are prevalent in the tribal areas. Pakistan is also building up its armed forces to protect itself against India.
India has acquired a Russian Akula II class SSN plus a carrier which is supposed to be handed over end of this year. Indian is also building two carriers of its own plus a fleet of four or possibly six SSBNs. In response Pakistan has just announced that it is going to build its own SSN. This then raises another question. Pakistan is not really a wealthy country and whilst it's main ally is the PRC, designing and building your own SSN is a hugely expensive undertaking in time, materials and money, so where is the money and expertise coming from? Iran? China?
Then there is Iran which borders both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The west, especially the US and the present Israeli govt have really gone out of their way to demonise Iran over a suspected nuke weapons program. They didn't do the same to Pakistan nor India, not threatening them with military strikes. Nor did the US get upset when the Israelis (& South Africans) acquired nuclear weapons. So any strikes or threats against Iran ramps up more tension within the area. The PRC have been buying oil off Iran paying for it in Yuan instead of US$. Now there is Syria and over weekend Obama has started to make positive noises about outside, maybe US, involvement in Syria. I'll leave Somalia and Sudan & South Sudan for another post.
Afghanistan cannot be looked at on its own in a singular, geographical, spatial, temporal and geopolitical context. It is part of larger political religious, cultural and civilizational processes that are geographically spread over an area extending from North Africa to Indonesia and Persia (Iran) to Pakistan in particular. However there are some problems that we have that are part of our makeup and upbringing.
Western thinking (as in European, North American, Australian & NZ) instead of holistically looking at issues, tend to reduce issues down and deal with them in isolation - siloed thinking like us science types do. We also deal with non European cultures by demeaning, devaluing or denigrating their way of life, their beliefs, their knowledge, their cultures etc. This is truly not just a western thing but because of the absolute dominance, politically, economically, militarily and through colonisation, the west has obtained an unprecedented domination of the planet and its peoples. This has been happening since the 15th century and really got going from the 18th century. Just look at the entertaniment media like music & movies, TV values etc., - where do they originate? Nowadays 85% of all knowledge is produced in the west. I have included this just as background about what is behind some of the decisions we make and why we look at others as we do. It helps us to deal with any biases we may need to confront or we come across.
I would like to look at the geopolitical issues that face the region and how they may impact on NZ & NZDF. First of all we have the possibility of a failed nuclear armed state (Pakistan) that at present has insurgency problems of its own with Taleban and other undesireables occupying a large part of its own territory in defiance of Islamabad and the Central Govt. These undesireables are also operating across the border in Afghanistan with some impunity and lots of cross polination. Why I think Pakistan has the potential to become a failed state, is that when ISAF pulls out of Afghanistan in 2014/15 Afghanistan is going to become an all out civil war, overspilling into Pakistan, further destabilising the country especially in the north west, where the Pakistani taliban are prevalent in the tribal areas. Pakistan is also building up its armed forces to protect itself against India.
India has acquired a Russian Akula II class SSN plus a carrier which is supposed to be handed over end of this year. Indian is also building two carriers of its own plus a fleet of four or possibly six SSBNs. In response Pakistan has just announced that it is going to build its own SSN. This then raises another question. Pakistan is not really a wealthy country and whilst it's main ally is the PRC, designing and building your own SSN is a hugely expensive undertaking in time, materials and money, so where is the money and expertise coming from? Iran? China?
Then there is Iran which borders both Afghanistan and Pakistan. The west, especially the US and the present Israeli govt have really gone out of their way to demonise Iran over a suspected nuke weapons program. They didn't do the same to Pakistan nor India, not threatening them with military strikes. Nor did the US get upset when the Israelis (& South Africans) acquired nuclear weapons. So any strikes or threats against Iran ramps up more tension within the area. The PRC have been buying oil off Iran paying for it in Yuan instead of US$. Now there is Syria and over weekend Obama has started to make positive noises about outside, maybe US, involvement in Syria. I'll leave Somalia and Sudan & South Sudan for another post.