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Post by kiwithrottlejockey on Jun 17, 2018 13:15:24 GMT 12
Lots of politics involved alright.
However, as Ron Mark said in Speight's Ale House in Wanaka following Warbrids Over Wanaka, “if you buggers stopped voting for those two tired old political parties and instead voted in a NZ First government, I'd have a couple of squadrons of F-16s for the RNZAF quicksmart.” Presumably that would also apply to martime and transport aircraft as well.
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Post by saratoga on Jun 17, 2018 13:26:03 GMT 12
sounds more like a Tui bar....
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Post by kiwithrottlejockey on Jun 17, 2018 14:42:44 GMT 12
No Tui in sight in that “Speights” bar.
In fact, Ron Mark (who is a Wairarapa local) actually commented that he couldn't purchase a Tui 'cause it wasn't on tap nor was it in the chiller cabinet.
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madmark
Flight Lieutenant
Posts: 78
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Post by madmark on Jun 17, 2018 16:50:52 GMT 12
Hopefully this is the telegraphing of a P-8 purchase. The P-8 at present is the only real viable replacement for the P-3. NATO nations may well band together at some stage and get something off the ground, however that is some time away, development of a quality MPA will take at least 10years, by which stage the P-3K2 will be long dead and the RNZAF will have lost another core capability.
The RNZAF is keen on purchasing a real aircraft, not a paperware aircraft like the SC-130J or the Swordfish. None of the twin turbo prop platforms on offer have the range, speed or endurance required to cover NZ's huge SAR area and the P-1 is beset with a number of issues and pricing (actual pricing not wikipedia pricing) is as expensive if not more when simulators, logistics packages and the like are factored in.
The only issue with the P-8 is the high PCN, reducing some of the viable airfields in the Pacific, however if those nations want what is effectively free SAR coverage then maybe they need to upgrade their facilities to accommodate the RNZAF.
The fact that the government seems keen to maintain the RNZAF's only true warfighting capability is cause for cheer. I hope that we see an announcement soon.
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Post by kiwithrottlejockey on Jun 17, 2018 17:08:26 GMT 12
Can the P-8 spend long periods of time conducting low-level search patterns looking for missing yachts and other boats like the P-3K Orions can currently do?
Or will they only be able to spend a limited amount of time at low altitude before blowing their fuel reserves and having to bugger off?
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madmark
Flight Lieutenant
Posts: 78
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Post by madmark on Jun 17, 2018 17:27:14 GMT 12
Why would you have to be at low level to conduct a search for yachts? Search height should be dictated by radar performance on the day.
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Post by kiwithrottlejockey on Jun 17, 2018 17:38:20 GMT 12
So radar is better than the Mk.1 eyeball at picking up a low-profile boat, or a person wearing a lifejacket in the water?
Because I can remember plenty of occasions via news stories where Orion crews have located small boats and/or persons in the water during searches.
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Post by Dave Homewood on Jun 17, 2018 17:55:14 GMT 12
Why don't you read back through the thread, this has been raised and debated ad nauseum.....
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madmark
Flight Lieutenant
Posts: 78
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Post by madmark on Jun 17, 2018 18:00:24 GMT 12
Well, you were talking about yachts which is not a low profile boat or a person in the water. Radar is usually the better sensor for locating boats, unless they are very small or partially submerged.
But yes there are occasions when a low level search may be required, in this scenario time is of the essence, a survivor in the water has an extremely poor life expectancy, depending on water temperature and survival equipment anywhere as low as 1 hour. The P-8 can transit faster and get on scene far quicker than the P-3 significantly improving the odds of a favourable outcome.
Remembering that SAR is just one of the roles the new aircraft will have to perform I'm curious, what platform do you propose as a P-3 replacement?
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Post by kiwithrottlejockey on Jun 17, 2018 19:11:23 GMT 12
Right....so the RNZAF needs P-8s for the whizz-bang stuff to keep our allies happy and other aircraft for the low-level Mk.1 eyeball searching for liferafts and persons unfortunate enough to end up in the water way out in the Pacific Ocean in NZ's search & rescue zone.
Or do we just go for the P-8s only and decide its tough “tough titties” for liferafts and people in the water?
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Post by richard1098 on Jun 17, 2018 19:27:33 GMT 12
Right....so the RNZAF needs P-8s for the whizz-bang stuff to keep our allies happy and other aircraft for the low-level Mk.1 eyeball searching for liferafts and persons unfortunate enough to end up in the water way out in the Pacific Ocean in NZ's search & rescue zone. Or do we just go for the P-8s only and decide its tough “tough titties” for liferafts and people in the water? The P-8 can carry a SAR kit, an Australian funded store: australianaviation.com.au/2017/10/australian-funded-p-8a-sar-capability-supports-us-navy-hurricane-response/But you're not seriously advocating the RNZAF be quipped solely to act as a short range coastguard or SAR organisation? You might as will contract it out to a private provider of those services, of which there a plenty globally. |
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madmark
Flight Lieutenant
Posts: 78
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Post by madmark on Jun 17, 2018 20:10:34 GMT 12
Right....so the RNZAF needs P-8s for the whizz-bang stuff to keep our allies happy and other aircraft for the low-level Mk.1 eyeball searching for liferafts and persons unfortunate enough to end up in the water way out in the Pacific Ocean in NZ's search & rescue zone. Or do we just go for the P-8s only and decide its tough “tough titties” for liferafts and people in the water? So, again, what are you advocating as a P-3 replacement? Given that whatever aircraft is procured it will likely have to serve NZ for 40 plus years, no-one really knows what is going to happen in that time, in our region, or indeed globally where NZ's interests may be at stake. My preference is to have a platform that is capable of the full spectrum of operations from relatively benign scenarios such as low level SAR type searches(which the P-8 is fully capable of doing, infact the USN are still operating in this fashion whilst waiting for various stores to be developed) through to high end "Whiz-Bang"warfighting stuff as you put it, to deal with any future potential conflict. With the way global politics is shifting I think looking to the future is critical when looking how we equip our armed forces moving forward, not just 5 Sqn. I am talking about aquiring a capability that will serve NZ in all scenarios, you are talking about SAR and nothing else. Also I don't understand where your assertion that the P-8 is incapable of doing visual searches comes from, it is capable of this, but just like our P-3 it is not its core business. |
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Post by nige on Jun 17, 2018 20:27:30 GMT 12
No please folks let's not get into rehashing alternative replacement options! This has already been done to death here and probably caused the thread to be locked!
The experts are the RNZAF and if they choose platform "X" then lets just be supportive and appreciative of their greater wisdom that would have considered a whole lot of parameters, rather just the one or two (or so) that gets bandied about here, which then sees people at loggerheads debating the same point over and over etc!
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madmark
Flight Lieutenant
Posts: 78
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Post by madmark on Jun 17, 2018 20:38:25 GMT 12
Couldn't agree with you more Nige. If the UK and Australia have gone for it, then its got to be good. Here is hoping that this purchase is announced soon so the RNZAF and NZ as a whole can look forward to a huge step up in capability.
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awol
Flight Sergeant
Posts: 21
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Post by awol on Jun 17, 2018 21:24:05 GMT 12
No please folks let's not get into rehashing alternative replacement options! This has already been done to death here and probably caused the thread to be locked! The experts are the RNZAF and if they choose platform "X" ... Defence procurements are at the discretion of MOD and wider government. The NZDF/RNZAF may be consulted, but certainly can't decide. |
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Post by saratoga on Jun 17, 2018 21:42:49 GMT 12
No please folks let's not get into rehashing alternative replacement options! This has already been done to death here and probably caused the thread to be locked! The experts are the RNZAF and if they choose platform "X" ... Defence procurements are at the discretion of MOD and wider government. The NZDF/RNZAF may be consulted, but certainly can't decide. Surely a case of the devil you know(or the only devil available) than being the best for the task. Or do you redefine the task to fit the most visible available MOTS platform?. |
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Post by kiwithrottlejockey on Jun 17, 2018 22:04:32 GMT 12
The P-8 is almost certainly the best aircraft for the sub-hunting and maritime warfare stuff, but the RNZAF also needs to keep the public onside and if you ask the average Joe Public what they know about No.5 Squadron RNZAF, they'll almost certainly mention search & rescue out in the Pacific and the lives they have saved.
So the solution is to purchase both the P-8 and a suitable aircraft for the publicity-generating rescue stuff.
Not that I'm holding my breath we'll get either unless the Orions reach their airframe expiry life and replacement becomes urgent, because politicians these days (certainly the pollies from the two major political parties) are only interested in remaining popular enough to stay in government. We saw it with the last government under John Key (smile & wave) and so far the current government appears to be following the same creed. And your average Joe Public would rather see money spent on more operations, or on education, or on solving the housing crisis in NZ, or on much-needed infrastructure than on defence. That's the reality of NZ these days. And that's what the politicians tend to pander to.
The last government announced a programme to replace the Orions and the Hercules, but I tend to see that as being very cynical. The time to make decisions about that is at the beginning of a new government while their popularity is still high and they can afford to spend a bit of political capital spending money on stuff the public don't really care about. Not towards the end of nine years in government, when the reality is in the life of virtually every person living in NZ that governments tend (with only two exceptions since the 1930s) to not last more than three terms. So making announcements like that during the ninth year is promising stuff the politicians concerned aren't likely to be able to carry out, because they are more likely than not to be reaching the end of their life in government and about to move over to the opposition benches.
My earliest political memories go back to the Nordmyer black budget, so I've been aware of politics in NZ for almost six decades, so I reckon I've had plenty of time to work out how politics operates in NZ, particularly over the past couple of decades where popularity appears to be the main principle of governments throughout that time.
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Post by saratoga on Jun 17, 2018 22:17:50 GMT 12
MOD/NZDF/Min.Def having to fudge the WOLC figures for the Orion replacement will make it even more unlikely to be able to afford another platform to do the same/similar tasking.
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Post by madmac on Jun 17, 2018 22:18:12 GMT 12
The only issue with the P-8 is the high PCN, reducing some of the viable airfields in the Pacific, however if those nations want what is effectively free SAR coverage then maybe they need to upgrade their facilities to accommodate the RNZAF. You might want to reflect on were that cash is going to come from, its going to be us or the PRC. Can the P-8 spend long periods of time conducting low-level search patterns looking for missing yachts and other boats like the P-3K Orions can currently do?No, unless its in the Hauraki gulf maybe. So what percentage of 5 SQN personnel will leave rather than move to Ohakea. |
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Post by saratoga on Jun 17, 2018 22:29:38 GMT 12
aha, i have the SAR solution. Only vessels equipped with EPIRB($1000-1500) will be searched for. The rest, well you're on your own.
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