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Post by FlyingKiwi on Feb 15, 2019 20:18:40 GMT 12
Hopefully it lessens; airshow considerations aside that looks like a nasty weather event in general, and with everything being so dry at the moment a massive torrential rainfall wouldn't be good.
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Post by Dave Homewood on Feb 15, 2019 20:49:17 GMT 12
The crazy thing is it was not there yesterday when I looked. There was a smattering of rain starting on the Sunday night and that's it. Now it's Armageddon coming!
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Post by spitfire14 on Feb 15, 2019 20:51:06 GMT 12
Fingers crossed that weather doesn't eventuate Dave, the organisers deserve some luck this time around, especially after securing the B-52 flypast. And is that the P-39 I see next to WWII Pacific Avenger Catalina - top right, Saturday??? Obviously tentative on test flying etc but exciting!!! I'm really looking forward to this show  |
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Post by No longer identifiable on Feb 16, 2019 6:42:51 GMT 12
The crazy thing is it was not there yesterday when I looked. There was a smattering of rain starting on the Sunday night and that's it. Now it's Armageddon coming! That's the problem when models try to predict weather 7 days in advance. The fact that the forecast changed so much between what I assume were two "runs" of the model illustrates how small changes in current conditions can generate large changes days later. It also illustrates that the uncertainty inherent in the model is a function of how many variables are used, how fine the spatial scale of the model is, and how good (i.e., accurate) the measurements of current weather are. The more variables that can be used, then generally the more accurate the model. From what I understand, the British Met Service model is one of the best around, but in NZ only NIWA have it (they are actually a contributing partner in the ongoing development of it) and possibly (not sure of this) our own Met Service may have access to it. What is known is that NIWA have the most powerful computer in NZ to run the model, and this is used to predict climate and weather down to a much smaller spatial scale than other forecasters use in NZ. I don't know what model or computing facilities Victoria University of Wellington use for their MetVUW rain forecasts, but I would guess that if it's being done in NZ than the uncertainty 7 days out would be greater than either a comparable NIWA or Met Service forecast. I also have an interest in this forecast because for the first time I'm working in Wellington when the show is on and I've bought a ticket for Saturday, but I'm not starting to worry yet. We will all have a much better idea of the likely weather the closer we get to the date, and I'm hoping it will turn out OK. |
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Post by Dave Homewood on Feb 16, 2019 8:26:14 GMT 12
But the problem is MetService is generally wrong a lot more than it is right, whereas Metvuw always proves to be much more accurate in its predictions. And NIWA's long range predictions have so often proved to be a joke year on year. Whenever they tell you there's going to be a log hot summer or a very cold winter it turns out the opposite. I just hope that Metvuw has it wrong this time around.
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Post by baz62 on Feb 16, 2019 11:22:13 GMT 12
Yikes. Is it me or is the North Island getting hammered by foul weather more than usual? We seem to be lucky in the east Coast of the South Island as we seem to miss most of the really bad weather. |
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Post by mcmaster on Feb 16, 2019 12:16:00 GMT 12
Looks like it’s the remnants of Tropical cyclone Oma currently smashing Vanuatu. Knowing those things could go anywhere.
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Post by mumbles on Feb 16, 2019 12:53:14 GMT 12
I like how the media release never uses the work 'nuclear', despite that being their reason for existence. To be fair, that also applied to the Canberra and Skyhawk  |
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Post by FlyingKiwi on Feb 16, 2019 13:00:13 GMT 12
To be fair I think this year NIWA were predicting a hotter than average summer reasonably far in advance, and they did get that right. Personally when I'm looking at the week's upcoming weather for flying I always rely more on Metvuw than Metservice, I have found that generally Metvuw get the actual conditions correct, just not the exact timing, whereas the long range Metservice forecasts often see-saw between a solid week of rain and a big high with continual sunshine. Hopefully this time Metvuw get it wrong!
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Post by mumbles on Feb 16, 2019 13:04:21 GMT 12
But the problem is MetService is generally wrong a lot more than it is right, I disagree, from my weatherwatching experience I think they are right most of the time (often to the hour here at least), it is just that wrong is noticed more than right. NZ weather is fickle and difficult to forecast, so for any forecast outlet to get up into 60-70% accuracy (as Metservice, Weatherwatch et al do) for short term forecasts here is a good achievement. Anything more than a two or three day forecast in NZ is a bit fraught. Still, I am nonetheless frustrated that after weeks of glorious summer weather in the Lower North Island it looks like packing it in at exactly the wrong time. |
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Post by tbf25o4 on Feb 16, 2019 15:03:07 GMT 12
Add the Orion to the Canberra and Skyhawk. The "nuclear" related weapons signs and release gear were in the aircraft when they arrived in 1966
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Post by Dave Homewood on Feb 17, 2019 15:36:18 GMT 12
Just now on my New Zealand Airshow Archive Facebook page member Steve Summers posted:
"This is not the first time that one of these flew over an air show it happened in the early ninety's at a air show in Hamilton, I was there and seen it with my own eyes! what an incredible sight, I will never forget it."
So now we have two different people saying a B-52 flew over airshows here before, one at Taupo in 1985 and one at Hamilton i the early 1990's. I am puzzled...
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Post by Dave Homewood on Feb 17, 2019 15:40:28 GMT 12
And he has added, "I'm sure I have a photo of it, it did a low pass over the airfield from Antarctica heading to the USA, I had my video camera that day but can't find any footage in the 100's of video's I took over the years"
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Post by ErrolC on Feb 17, 2019 15:50:22 GMT 12
At a minimum those dates are wrong, there is no way a nuclear-capable bomber would get permission from the 1984 Labour Government to enter NZ airspace (Buchanan refusal was Feb 1985), and the US wasn't sending armed warplanes here after 1985 (nothing other than Deep Freeze I think?).
I can remember a Galaxy at Whenuapai early '80s, where else did it go? There may have been the occasional one to Christchurch too? Might have had the same dramatic impact that could be mis-remembered.
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Post by Dave Homewood on Feb 17, 2019 15:55:16 GMT 12
Exactly. I think in both cases they had to have been seeing Starlifters from Operation Deep Freeze
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Post by Dave Homewood on Feb 17, 2019 15:55:54 GMT 12
Or C-5 Galaxy transports.
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Post by saratoga on Feb 17, 2019 16:08:19 GMT 12
Definitely Galaxies at Auckland and Ohakea in the '90s. For the APEC (I think?) meeting.
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Post by Dave Homewood on Feb 17, 2019 19:40:23 GMT 12
The forecast has changed, as it stands now looks like the cyclone will hit earlier and be gone by Saturday night now. I hope this trend continues and it pushes back to raining and blowing through even earlier
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Post by ErrolC on Feb 18, 2019 7:23:20 GMT 12
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Post by Peter Lewis on Feb 18, 2019 8:22:00 GMT 12
I shudder regularly when I dredge up memories of WOW 2017.
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