USA Instability and NZ'S Defence Outlook

[madmac]

It seems to have been missed by the main stream but the core of NZ defence planning seem to have clearly evaporated in the last few months. The instability in the USA was predicable atleast 6 years ago but we don't seem to noticed [and the current state is likely to go on for years yet].

To those in the know is there any response coming or are we to walk like sheep to the works.




Notes;
There was atleast one defence white paper submission that noted instability in the USA for the next decade.

In addition to the noted general institutional issues in the USA, there is also an extreme political imbalance in the US military [95 percent republican with some discrimination against democrats] may yet throw up additional ugly events [unlikely but not to be discounted].

[skyhawkdon]

The Chinese and Russians must be laughing their heads off at what is happening in the US, while quietly continuing with their expansionist plans.

[baronbeeza]

It is certainly an interesting topic but I am also of the belief that it was seen coming, at least a decade ago.

One of the issues I am seeing is the way the various media have taken sides and it seems very difficult to get balanced reporting, - of any issue.

I would hope NZ and Australia would have been discussing various contingencies, certainly at the defence planning level.
Another aspect is the drift towards Chinese manufacture of so much equipment and components, aviation certainly but also items perhaps essential to defence.

Naturally we can't expect to see too much change there for a few years at least.

I was in the military during the upheaval of the mid-80's. The events then had many of us thinking, including considering career options.
I would be guessing the military there, and here, have some changes ahead.

[pops2]

I hope the Australians have done proper due diligence on their planned project to acquire Apache helicopters and their US supplier is able to meet the requirements/ delivery dates etc.

www.flightglobal.com/helicopters/apache-triumphs-in-australian-attack-helicopter-competition/141971.article

Whether NZ could end in some sort of strange World War One type alliance that includes Australia, Japan and Britain. (or India)

India has what appears to be a developing 'conventional' arms industry.


Obama removed a lot 'strong minded' generals (around 2013?) How that effects what will follow now remains to be seen.

[madmac]

I wouldn't lump the Russians and the Chinese too closely, Chinese expansion could easily include Eastern Russian.

There is a lot of manufacture leaving China right now, for two main reasons, increasing costs due to a declining labour force and the conduct of the CCP with regard to IP, etc. Some seem to think that the increase aggression from the CCP is due to distract from the impacts caused by the fleeing manufacturing.

The decline of the US might drive the Ozzies to look very closely at a nuclear weapons program.

[marius]

Its my belief that the New Zealand Defence Force should begin to focus its efforts on finding and assisting allies to begin to combat Russian and Chinese expansionism. With the current instability in the United States we can no longer rely on them to effectively combat them both anymore, it is time for New Zealand to step up to the challenge just like we did with Covid-19 to help our allies defeat this threat. Our allies and potential allies like Australia and India respectively along with ourselves and other like-minded nations must not make the mistake of Neville Chamberlain and never appease Russia and China never causing confrontations but never backing down from them either.

I want to reiterate Russia and China must be stopped in their colonial ambitions and New Zealand must step up to help fill the void left over from the US and while we should never advocate for war we can never run from it. There is a quote from the Romans, "Si vis pacem parabellum" which means "If you want peace prepare for war" this perfectly personifies what New Zealand and our allies must do.