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Post by tfly on Oct 16, 2022 21:48:45 GMT 12
Interesting interview for those who may have missed it?
Interested to hear what people think here
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Post by Dave Homewood on Oct 17, 2022 8:02:54 GMT 12
Hmmm....
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Post by gibbo on Oct 17, 2022 9:49:11 GMT 12
Interesting interview for those who may have missed it? Interested to hear what people think here Yes very interesting... I guess the biggest & most positive take-away from this is an open acknowledgement that there is a critical retention problem & that the $90M recently announced is not enough to turn that around. For the last 30 years or so Govt's have chosen to bury their heads in the sand over that very same point. The sceptic in me of course says that they had no choice to acknowledge it given the state the NZDF finds itself in now... but it's refreshing to see it openly acknowledged & admission that a plan needs to be put in place to reverse that. As to the rest, Jack Tame is right in that previous reviews have also pointed out all the same challenges with regard to climate change & the influence of China...so why do we need to review again when we should just be getting on with it? I'm no fan of Henare as DefMin but he's finally managed to make some coherent sense! COVID has changed the ballpark, both in the retention stakes & on the budgetary front. Since the last review there has also been two very obvious changes that will be driving a review... (1) China's much more visible plan of action in the SC Sea & more importantly in the SouPac...along with the rising tension over Taiwan - ie: more overt talk & action (2) the Russia invasion of Ukraine. Both have an impact for NZ, as Henare admits. The timing of course isn't great... a new defence review starting a year out from an election that the incumbent will likely struggle to win (frankly)... the BIG thing now is to see what National's response to this is...if they don't say much in support, I'd be very worried given they'll be looking for big $$ savings...and we know who that whipping by usually is! The retention issue does not need to wait for a review so that should progress ...sounds like maybe they acknowledge that. As to hardware, well yes we know we are pitifully equipped. To take Tame's example of drones etc... most other militaries are streaks ahead with drone capability whereas the NZDF has all along seemed reluctant to get into that space in any seriousness, why the hell is that precisely!?! I did hear ( unsubstantiated) whispers that Navy divers were thinking they'd be put out of a job if the Navy invested in remote-controlled mine clearance technology etc... maybe the attitudes in the services need to change... but isn't that a leadership issue! Anyway I could be wrong on that so please don't hang me on that example, but happy to be corrected! The make-up of the review is clearly one with a focus on foreign affairs etc but that is to be expected I guess. Good to hear Henare put a focus on the RNZN but would like to see the RNZAF role given more prominence too (I'll play my broke record of 'EMAC' again here... invest in the capability now!). With regard to hardware, yes that will only become clear when a review is made then followed by a new capability review / plan so factoring in the election...years away yet! I'd suggest anyone salivating over questions about the possibility of an ACF, don't read to much into that at this point... the NZDF is so far away from being able to support such a capability at present and given there are so many other more critical needs that all he's really done is sensibly batted that away with the standard 'puff' can't rule it out (& therefore nor can he rule it in!). At the end of the day it is good to finally see a DefMin openly acknowledging the obvious so maybe, just maybe, NZ's thinking is starting to turn a corner. However a review means little unless there is the budget to then follow through with the recommendations. Hopefully it also won't be an exercise in refocusing way from combat capability. Given the open admissions now about real security concerns it would be extremely difficult for any future Govt to talk down investment in core military capability. Just don't expect a huge lift in spending!
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Post by Antonio on Oct 17, 2022 10:39:41 GMT 12
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Post by skyhawkdon on Oct 17, 2022 14:26:33 GMT 12
I note that Aunty Helen is very quiet on the whole mess the world is currently in. She must still be looking under the bed for her "incredibly benign strategic environment" that seems to have so surprisingly (to her at least) gone AWOL!
It is very sad to hear the state NZDF is in personnel wise. They are not alone though. Many industries in NZ are in a similar state. Staff turnover is at record levels right throughout the NZ economy.
Retention bonus' didn't work last time it was tried, all it did was put a wedge between those who got it and those who didn't. If they don't give it to everyone then they will be in a world of pain shortly.
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Post by 30sqnatc on Oct 17, 2022 18:55:59 GMT 12
Having just returned from engagement with ADF and Australian defence industry the scale of their retention and recruiting bonus/payments are eye watering compared with anything offered before by NZDF. They really are showing a national commitment to defence that we have never had.
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Post by alanster on Oct 27, 2022 16:19:01 GMT 12
Question: “Is there a foreseeable scenario in which NZ will reintroduce an Airforce Combat Wing?”
Henare: “Potentially”
(@9.20 in the link)
This is the first time any Defence Minister has said anything remotely like this in the past 20 years.
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Post by alanster on Oct 27, 2022 16:46:18 GMT 12
I’m gobsmacked a Labour defence minister has said it as well!
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Post by 30sqnatc on Oct 27, 2022 17:18:49 GMT 12
Party politics aside I'm gobsmacked any NZ politician admitted it is even a possibility
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Post by Antonio on Oct 27, 2022 19:30:32 GMT 12
Party politics aside I'm gobsmacked any NZ politician admitted it is even a possibility True. True.
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Post by obiwan27 on Oct 28, 2022 7:11:01 GMT 12
Talk is cheap. Doing it takes time and a significant $$ commitment and political will. Under MMP it will never happen.
There was discussion in the first term of the Labour/NZ1st coalition of a presence of RSAF fast jets at Ohakea. They even flew in some F16s. After which the idea was shelved.
The mess the NZDF is in (You can point the finger in many other areas too) is thanks to NZ politicians across the political spectrum and the decisions made over that past 20-30 years.
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Post by flyinkiwi on Oct 28, 2022 10:36:44 GMT 12
Party politics aside I'm gobsmacked any NZ politician admitted it is even a possibility After carefully listening to the deliberately evasive and vague double talk, I think the implication is that the NZDF can drop Defense Attachés on the bad guys.
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mroz
Flying Officer
Posts: 65
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Post by mroz on Oct 30, 2022 4:31:28 GMT 12
"Potentially" is political-speak for Yes!
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Post by thelensofhistory on Oct 30, 2022 15:55:25 GMT 12
I note that Aunty Helen is very quiet on the whole mess the world is currently in. She must still be looking under the bed for her "incredibly benign strategic environment" that seems to have so surprisingly (to her at least) gone AWOL! It is very sad to hear the state NZDF is in personnel wise. They are not alone though. Many industries in NZ are in a similar state. Staff turnover is at record levels right throughout the NZ economy. Retention bonus' didn't work last time it was tried, all it did was put a wedge between those who got it and those who didn't. If they don't give it to everyone then they will be in a world of pain shortly.
Helen was very sensitive concerning that matter.
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mroz
Flying Officer
Posts: 65
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Post by mroz on Oct 30, 2022 17:28:16 GMT 12
Climate change, picture of sick kids, refugees, climate change, refugees, girls education, climate change, refugees, insert sick kids photo again.....Clark has and is still building a "Bigger than Jesus" career, around feel good mush...it's all she knows, otherwise, she'd struggle to push a broom around a warehouse!
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Post by errolmartyn on Oct 30, 2022 21:52:46 GMT 12
Climate change, picture of sick kids, refugees, climate change, refugees, girls education, climate change, refugees, insert sick kids photo again.....Clark has and is still building a "Bigger than Jesus" career, around feel good mush...it's all she knows, otherwise, she'd struggle to push a broom around a warehouse! mroz, You probably need to see an eye specialist, as, given its lack of aviation content, this post has clearly been posted on the wrong forun. Errol
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Post by johnnyfalcon on Oct 31, 2022 19:30:43 GMT 12
"...hundreds of billions..."
Seriously? That statement has credence?
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Post by phil on Oct 31, 2022 20:34:02 GMT 12
"...hundreds of billions..." Seriously? That statement has credence? well she clearly didn't know anything about fighter jets when she was PM, you can't really expect her to start now.
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Post by gibbo on Oct 31, 2022 21:08:20 GMT 12
"Potentially" is political-speak for Yes! I guess it's all about perception, as saw 'potentially' as a pure & simple exercise of sitting on the fence and committing neither way. Granted it leaves the door slightly ajar compared to the emphatic 'no' from both main parties over the last 20 years but I wouldn't read anything into it... in fact I think he's astute enough to realise saying 'no' would be seen to be too out of touch with the current reality, so his 'boss' would've told him to straddle that fence! He'll be there for a long time too cos the RNZAF is so far off being able to operate an ACF, even 'ACF lite' that he's going to have a numb backside before he's, hopefully, out of the DefMin job.
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Post by machina on Nov 1, 2022 5:44:53 GMT 12
I wonder if we’ll ever get out the cycle of just issuing reviews and statements and just make a decision to buy some kit?
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