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Post by Bruce on Nov 28, 2006 9:19:48 GMT 12
Later this week a new book by Historian Ian McGibbon will be launched, looking at the "what If" scenario if Japan had invaded. The media seem to consider this to be a radical suggestion, as if it is something never previously considered. McGibbon claims that if the Americans had not won at Midway, the Japanese invasion of NZ was almost certain, as it could be used as a base for raids on the Eastern seaboard of Australia. Of course the idea of the US actually saving our bacon goes against the current thinking. After all, the US is a global superpower intent on bringing all nations into submission, and Asia is where we should be building alliances.... (not long ago that would be the exact opposite...) see: tvnz.co.nz/view/page/423466/902656
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Post by Dave Homewood on Nov 28, 2006 9:45:08 GMT 12
I'd be keen to see what McGibbon mentions about NZ's defences, including the 105,000 Home Guard who'd have attemtped to stop an invasion, and the RNZAF's efforts including the radical idea of suicide bombers from our FAFAI squadrons in Tiger Moths.
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Post by Dave Homewood on Nov 28, 2006 9:56:57 GMT 12
I wonder if, had NZ been invaded, whether we'd have called home our own ships, Achilles and Leander, to help bombard them, and whether the Royal Navy and the Royal Australian Navy would have rushed to our assistance at all.
By the time the Japanese were close to invading NZ this country was already running as a smooth war machine on the home front. Every town had its defences, every able bodied man and women had their emergency duties to perform. It would not have been the complete walkover some might imagine. After all our Home Guard were mobile and prepared to go and meet an invader no matter how remote the beachhead may be. There were certain divisions in the Home Guard, Division 1 was fit soldiers ready to go and fight wherever sent. Division 2 was semi-fit soldiers who'd stay and defend their home patch if that failed, and Division three, those who made the tea and kept supplies going, etc.
They were well trained and organised by 1942 as they'd been training for two years (the NZ Home Guard was set up against a possible German invasion, not a hastily thrown together army to repel Japs.
NZ'd would have had a lot of advantages, home knowledge for one. The Hudsons would have had their work cut out to sink the fleet but would have been joined by crews in the Vincents and maybe even any Baffins still runable by that stage. It would have been an all out defence.
I'm sure a US carrier task force may have steamd down to NZ waters too, if they were not wiped out at Midway or Coral Sea in this scenario.
Some say the Japanese fleet stopped at the Battle of the Coral Sea were eventually headed here after taking the bottom of PNG. They even had NZ Japanese money printed, etc, so we have a lot to be grateful for to the US Navy of 1942.
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Post by corsair67 on Nov 28, 2006 10:15:04 GMT 12
I don't even like to think of what the Japanese Army would have done to NZ civilians - if their treatment of other nationalities under their rule is anything to go by. I think the realities of a Japanese invasion of New Zealand would have been that our defence force would have been very quickly overwhelmed and forced to retreat into the hills to wage a guerrilla style war against the Japs. Australia would no doubt have come to New Zealand's aid, but how much assistance they would have been able to ultimately give at that stage of WWII is debatable, especially if they were caught up in New Guinea at the same time. I still think the Battle of the Coral Sea was the real turning point for Australia and New Zealand in terms of Japanese plans for this part of the world.
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Post by Dave Homewood on Nov 28, 2006 11:42:40 GMT 12
I know that Australia was so desperate in their defence of New Guinea, to stop the Japs getting into the top of Aussie, that they actually mobilised some of their equivalent of the Home Guard (I can't remember what they called their HG but it had a different name) and they actually sent them to the forward area to join the troops. I don't think any other countries sent their civilian army overseas to fight.
Maybe they'd have sent some of them to join our defences. Just a thought.
Also our Home Guard by that stage of the war were administered by our army and would have worked alongside the NZ troops, which there were considerable numbers of still in NZ. Remember later we raised the 3rd Division to go to fight in the Pacific, so they were all at home at that stage, along with a large corps of Hme Servicemen and other troops in training.
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Post by Dave Homewood on Nov 28, 2006 11:53:52 GMT 12
Woops that should have been Home Servicemen in my last sentence.
Don't get me wrong, NZ may well have had a crushing defeat on its hands, but I don't think the resistancewould be as light as some predict. Most Kiwis would have fought to the last breath in their bodies to keep the Japanese out.
It annoys me how in several documentaries on NZ's war there has been a lady, who was a child at the time, who scoffs at the NZ Home Guard and says they were just a bunch of drunks in a social club. Maybe in her vilage, but my own studies into the HG in NZ have proven they were deadly serious, mostly ex-soldiers from WWI and interwar Territorial and compulsory service members, and they knew what they were doing and meant business. The generalisation in those docos by that stupid woman ("In Fear of Invasion" and "New Zealanders At War" are two she appeared in I think) gives completely the wrong impression.
They were trained as soldiers, and as guerilla fighters. Right here in Cambridge the local bicycle shop became a bomb factory where they made hundreds of Molotov Coctails, Sticky Bombs and Jam Tim Bombs, etc. They devised plans, escape routes, rally points. It wasn't just playing at sldiers as some assume.
They had machine guns and rifles in almost every platoon by 1942. And uniforms for most men. Ours was as good as the UK Home guard by then, and studies of the nature of this book have shown each time that home defence would have repelled the Germans from Britain. Given that the Japs would have a hell of a lot further to travel to invade, so a VERY stretched supply line by sea that could be blockaded failry easily by the US and Royal Navies, and the ruggedness of this country then (dirt roads everywhere) it would have been difficult for the invasion force to take the whole country and continue to supply itself. The USAAF would have sent down bombers to base in the unoccupied places. And I think after a Stalingrad style fight the batsards would have been wiped out if all went well.
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Post by tibor on Nov 28, 2006 12:06:06 GMT 12
my own studies into the HG in NZ have proven they were deadly serious, mostly ex-soldiers from WWI and interwar Territorial and compulsory service members, and they knew what they were doing and meant business. I agree Dave. My grandfather was in the Home Guard, based in Levin. The stories he told showed me that they were indeed serious soldiers - their training was tough and they were very professional in what they did. I think they would have given any invading force a real run for their money.
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Post by corsair67 on Nov 28, 2006 12:45:56 GMT 12
Dave, the Australian units who bore the brunt of the early fighting in New Guinea, especially on the Kokoda Track, were from the Militia.
The Militia was made up of a lot of young men who were too young (under 19, I think) to sign up for the Army without their parent's permission, but could join the Militia because in theory they were never meant to sent overseas. Of course, in 1942 New Guinea was an Australian protectorate so when the Japanese invaded the militia ended up being sent there.
The losses these poor bugger suffered against a well trained Japanese army were appalling, but they slowed the Jap advance upon Port Moresby enough until the Australian Army were able to throw more experienced soldiers into the fray.
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Post by phil82 on Nov 28, 2006 12:48:34 GMT 12
I'm a bit sceptical about the way some of these 'historians' go about there business of writing 'what if' scenarios on the flimsiest of evidence. The Japanese attacked Pearl Harbour, against some very senior military advice, because America had a strangelhold on oil supplies, and once America entered into the war at full strength, that stranglehold was tightened. By the time the Japanese had advanced as far as Singapore, Burma the Phillipines, Midway , PNG etc, they were at full stretch. Though they did attack Australia both from the air at Darwin and by the midget subnarines in Sydney Harbour, both largely unsuccessful, they were stretched even further.
Having had a go at Darwin and failed, why on earth would any military in its right mind then decide to extend it's supply line by a massive thousands of miles down to the south and attack New Zealand? In order to get at Australia? Yeah, right. This is the stuff historians love to speculate on, because it's right on the fringe of historical fact, and it just might sell a book or two! Remember also, that after Darwin, Australia brought some very experienced troops home from the desert to defend Australia if needs be.
Remember, every country the Japanese occupied required huge garrison, to be fed and supplied, and they were barely coping as it was. Not only were garrison troops starving, but so were the civilian population at home. There was no oil in NZ to speak of, so they couldn't have fed a war machine other than by sea, and the US and British fleets would have had a turkey-shoot just as they did in the pacific. By 1944, the US Navy had virtually eliminated the Japanes Navy as a fighting force. U.S. subs based on Guam and Saipan imposed a virtual blockade against Japan. Few ships entered or left Japanese waters without being attacked or sunk by submarines. Japan ran out of oil for her naval armada, gasoline for aircraft and tanks, steel and aluminum for industry, and food for her people. By August 1944, the sea war was no longer in doubt-three of Japan's remaining five fleet carriers had been sunk, and Japan's navy ceased thereafter to be a factor in the outcome of the war. So if Japan couldn't attack Australia in 1942, or even contemplate New Zealand, why would they suddenly look at NZ in 1944?
Sorry, but I think some of these guys write books because that's what they do, but that doesn't make them true!
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Post by Dave Homewood on Nov 28, 2006 12:59:37 GMT 12
I agree Colin. The What If scenario in Britain is worth pondering as it very nearly occurred. The fact that the Japanese did indeed have plans drawn up for possible invasion of NZ, doesn't mena that it would have happened. The whole supply issue is for me the biggest factor that eliminates the invasion. However, had they actually managed to take the top or eastern sde of Aussie first, then we would have been in serious stook.
Thanks Tibor for those comments. It's great to hear someoe else knows the truth about our HG.
Craig, the Militia is not the force i was thinking of. They were something like the Australian Defence Volunteers, or something like that. I have an article on them somewhere, but in storage and not retrievable. These guys were sent up to PNG later in the war I believe. You may remember in The Sullivans, Dave the father was in charge of a munitions factory. He was also a captain in the HG-equivalent. At one point he was ordered to go up to the front line. I could never work out if it was in any way accurate till i read this article and did some research. It was factual. They did send their civilian soldiers forward (much like we're doing now in Timor and the Solomons I guess).
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Post by Dave Homewood on Nov 28, 2006 13:12:24 GMT 12
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Post by corsair67 on Nov 28, 2006 13:14:25 GMT 12
I don't know if the attacks on Darwin were largely unsuccessful. The first air raid on 18th February 1942 killed over 250 people and caused widespread panic in the area that took quite some time to bring under control. A lot of what happened in Darwin during the first raid allegedly hasn't been fully told due in part to the tight censorship in force at the time.
Broome and Townsville were also shelled/bombed during 1942 by the Japs.
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Post by phil82 on Nov 28, 2006 13:15:00 GMT 12
The 'what if' in the case of Britain being invaded was very different to here Dave. They had a mere twenty miles of the English Channel to cross, but it would have been a very costly exercise for the Germans with the whole of the RN and RAF having a go in restricted waters.
It really is a speculative gamble to write about Britain being invaded by sea. It had never been done before for a start, and even if it had been successful, they would have " fought them on the beaches' as one Winston Churchill said. In fact, when Germany decided they couldn't beat the RAF, the whole war machine of invasion was dismantled.
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Post by corsair67 on Nov 28, 2006 13:18:51 GMT 12
Wasn't that about the time that the Royal Navy won the Battle of Britain? ? ;D
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Post by phil82 on Nov 28, 2006 13:57:31 GMT 12
Being a 1940 vintage war baby, and having survived the war despite Hitler's best intentions [I have a very clear recollection of being in a bomb shelter}, I can only say that Hitler was very lucky.
Had I been born 20 years earlier, the war would have been over by 1941! I'd have shown the Cpl a thing or two!
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Post by phil82 on Nov 28, 2006 14:03:44 GMT 12
"don't know if the attacks on Darwin were largely unsuccessful. The first air raid on 18th February 1942 killed over 250 people and caused widespread panic in the area that took quite some time to bring under control. A lot of what happened in Darwin during the first raid allegedly hasn't been fully told due in part to the tight censorship in force at the time."
They were unsuccessful in the sense that they were largely pointless! There was no invasion force standing by, and you can't bomb a country into submission. During the height of the air bombing of Germany, German war production actually increased!
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Post by corsair67 on Nov 28, 2006 14:13:16 GMT 12
Well, the Japanese own a big chunk of the Gold Coast now, so maybe they did invade in the end? ;D
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Post by caromeg on Nov 28, 2006 18:58:15 GMT 12
Tactics for beginners logistics for winners, although the Hardy and expert nippon soldier would have marched on his stomach in the bread basket of the south pacific, I doubt the logistical support for maintaining an army afoot would have prevailed. Even with dodgy torpedos at the time, the usn would have made the long supply chain, even from Australia untenable. I doubt Japan could have realistically dominated a nation full of hardy pioneer stock (unlike today) with less than 250000 troops. (Thats 2 - 3 time the troops they effectively used to attack malaya) . Thats a huge amount of ammunition, and material to provide. Do the math and look at the expenditure rates per day to not just fight battles but win (ie motar, arty, SFMG ammo) and the fact that local manufacture isn't an option and you have a huge logistics hassle. As for the quality of the home guard, people need to look beyond the school boy approach to the profession at arms and look at the key point here - the will to fight. Lets look at it another way, does anyone have the temerity to say that there would have been any other option apart from fighting on to the bitter end in the MINDS of the kiwis in 1942. Was surrender and occupation with all it entailed including the racial insinuations really an option? This also means that the Japanese Army would have had to maintain a large number of troops for a reasonable time rather than just shock and awe then routine occupation. In my veiw the only way NZ would be have been successfuly occupied would have been with the total destruction of Australia and neutralisation of the USN in the pacific.
Signed Maj Gen Bloodnock Empire Know It All
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Post by Dave Homewood on Nov 28, 2006 19:09:32 GMT 12
Well said caromeg.
My own belief is that tanacity to fight was sure there for the Home Guard. I have been writing a book on the Cambridge Battalion of the HG, and through that I've looked into the happenings of many other areas of NZ too. The spirit in which people rallied to join, once the Home Guard was officially announced in July 1940, was amazing. They flocked out in really good numbers in most areas, particularly rural areas - except in Auckland.
Some newspaper reports stated Aucklanders were being apethetic and leaving it to everyone else to do the work (things don't change, eh?). However campaigning in that city soon saw people rallying to the cause there too, and many platoons and comapnies formed.
I'm proud to state that my little town of Cambridge was the first place in NZ to have a HG populated to Company strength. Despite beign probably the furtherst inland of any town, thus safer from attack than say Raglan, Tauranga, Auckland etc., the men turned out in droves to protect their town and families. The Camridge Company became the Cambridge Battalion with over 600 men by late 1942. Not bad for a town of 5000, which by then had around 1/5th of the population in the services.
I'm working slowly on putting my HG book project online. Is anyone interested in reading the first half? If so I can speed up the process...
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Post by caromeg on Nov 28, 2006 19:26:29 GMT 12
Hence the math comment, One battalion of even average soldiers on their own turf with the backs against the wall up against a battlehardened army husbanding every round would still roughly conform to the 3 to 1 ratio for the attack ie a battlion would have been required to deal to the cambridge company and a brigade to deal to the battalion. (thats if you fight fair and conventional which I doubt we would have). I have no doubt the Japanese would have won in the field it would have whittled them away. Its a straight numbers game, after dealing to the cambridge battalion with their brigade, the japanese would be down in ammo , troops and would still need to move onto the next town's company. (And leave troops behind to occupy cambridge). I think the aucklanders would have done something in a similar vein to Churchill's comments wrt the yanks - they will eventully do the right thing especially after exploring all the alternatives. If that had happed, fighting in built up areas is a meat mincer for anyone - again the Japanese would have won but it would have been a logistics loss. As for where the Japs would have meet their match, thats obvious - in the mighty King Country where colin meads's ansectors would have smoted them with pine tree pilums.
Signed Maj Gen Bloodnock Empire Know It All
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