RNZAF Year 2030

[Bruce]

O.K. I hear that the RNZAF will replace the UH1 hueys with Eurocopter EH90s. We are now entering a phase when the wonderful 1960s aircraft are coming due for replacement. Looking ahead 25 years, what do you think the RNZAF will look like?
What say we do some crystal ball gazing and try and work out what our airforce will look like in 2030 - I'd take "Wish lists" as well as realistic ideas. With the development span of most modern designs it would be reasonable to predict 25 years on the basis of what is on the drawing boards now.

To start the ball rolling, heres my RNZAF order of battle 2030.....

40 Sqn, Ohakea, 6 Airbus A400M Transports, 2 Boeing 787 "Dreamliners"
42 Sqn Ohakea, 3 Gulfstream exec jets, 4 New light Turboprops (Perhaps Diamond aircraft)
3 sqn Ohakea, 18 NH90 helicopters (2x deployed to Burnham, 2 deployed to "Waitemata regional Airport"
5 Sqadron Ohakea, 5 Airbus A400M Maritime recon aircraft - one deployed to Waitemata Regional Airport"
Pilot Training Sqn Ohakea, Alpha Aircraft military trainers. Aerospatiale EC120 training helicopters.
2 Squadron Burnham, 10 EC120 Armed combat air support helicopters.

this list has some "wishlist" items as you can probably work out.....

What can you come up with.

[Dave Homewood]

Eurocopter EH90?? What??

Does that even exist? Nothing came up on Eurocopter's own website.

Hmm. So what is to replace the Sioux?

I doubt there will be an RNZAF in 25 years if the voters of this country keep voting in Labour and National.

However if they voted in the new party I'll start one day, there would be an expansion of bases and aircraft.

Whenuapai and Hobsonville would remain active a they are the most strategic of bases. A military element would also return to Ardmore where light training would commence on aircraft bought for the RNZAF, not leased. They'd be CT-4K's of course. The reason for basing them at Arrdmore is it's the biggest flight training airport and it ensures the nimbys don't persuade the Auckland councillors to close it due to noise. It would be puchased for defence. The A4K warbirds display team of the RNZAF Historic Flight would also be based there.

We'd have ten C130K Hercules - like a C130J but with all the problems ironed out.

The same tired six Orions would be going through their 47th upgrade, but a squadron of 16 more new examples would be added to cover the ever growing problem with sea poaching and rescues due to the global warming changing weather patterns.

Wigram would also be taken back, the houses shifted and the airfield restored. It ould house a squadron of helicopters for troop transport and rescue, etc.

Five squadrons of fighters would be purchased, including Harriers, Bae Hawk 2000's and F16's. All second hand but in good nick. Ths is because of ever worsening tensions in the world with the USA invading most of the Middle East, parts of Africa and the Koreas. Our defence is vital. There would also be two squadrons of attack helicopters for troop support. Probably Apaches or a NEw Zealand built equiv.

We'd have more transport and training squadrons too, and the Navy, which by now has had it's frigates sold and replaced with three fast heilcopter cariers, would have the latest Lynx and Seasprites, and Seahawks equipping them.

Of course this is all paid for by taxing big business harder, as it is their assets we protect, couple with sweeping changes where no more funding goes towards race-based culture, and no more dole. Anyone leaving school or unemployed would serve an apprenticeship or trade in the military, or if they are pascifists, in the Fire service or Ambulance service.

Realistically I think we'll have been invaded by Austraai backed by the USA, under George Bush jr jr by then anyway. ;D

[turboNZ]

umm,...not wantng to split hairs but there is already a C-130K (I think it's the RAF version...like an H)

Anyway....2030...RNZAF...same sentence...hmmm...you guys are hopeful !!!!

TNZ

[Bruce]

NH90 Helicopter - my typo. It was announced yesterday, so its not an April Fools joke. 12 NH90s to replace the 14 Hueys.

[Bruce]

with NH-90s we will need to get A400Ms to transport them (Also the Army LAV3) just looking at them they look as though they will be a very tight squeeze in a herk. C17s would be nice but.... yeah right.

[IVAN]

Dateline Wellington - 01 April 2030

Helen Clark, President of the Eastern Australian State of New Zealand, announced today that the RNZAF was to be merged into the Qantas subsidiary, Air New Zealand. The Air Force which now consists of only a single Squadron, operates the President’s two VIP Airbus A380 aircraft, and three 65 year old Hercules aircraft as support aircraft for the President’s entourage. It is expected that the Hercules will be offered for tender, but will be stored in the meantime alongside the former Strike Wing Skyhawks and Macchi Trainers, a sale for which is believed to be imminent.

The disestablishment of the RNZAF means that the New Zealand Army will be the sole survivor of New Zealand’s three Armed Forces after the remaining Naval vessels were converted to fishing trawlers and sold to the State’s largest fishing company last year. As with the Navy disestablishment the reason behind the merger is to allow more money to be set aside for the Combined Benefit which is now being paid to 90% of the population over the age of sixteen.

The President confirmed that the Royal Australian Air Force would continue to protect the State from its bases on the West Island, but could foresee no threats to her State in the present benign world atmosphere. At the same time the President also announced the termination of the contracts with the New Zealand Warbirds group who have been operating the ex RNZAF Orions on fisheries protection duties. This work will in future be carried out by the Pacific Islands’ Air Defence Force using far more modern equipment, purchased with funds from New Zealand’s Pacific Aid Budget.

Plans were also announced for the RNZAF Base at Whenuapai to be converted to a cemetery. This would seem to lay to rest any plans by a group of Auckland Mayors to have it converted to a civil aerodrome, a project which has been fought in the courts since mid 2003. As a result of this ruling Auckland International Airport has resurrected plans to build a second parallel runway in the next decade, and to immediately expand their shopping mall which is already twice the size of any other mall in New Zealand. The CEO of AIAL was delighted with the news stating that last year’s 3 billion dollar profit was really putting the squeeze on the airports plans, and they may now be able to defer until next month a planned rise in the cost of car parking from the present $50 per hour.

The Chief of Air Staff was unavailable for comment.

[turboNZ]

Whao Man !!!,

That's some good stuff you smokin' Dude !!!!

Seriously, Ivan, very well written and so believable !!!!

TNZ

[pablo]

A little belated but I only just joined today!

My vision for RNZAF...(in the nearish future)!

Since Bruce originally posted in 2005 things have changed dramtically, so I thought an updated version would be interesting.

I would first like to see Whenuapai and Hobsonville continue in their current functions, due to their strategic importance and proximity to NZ's major population base and therefore labour supply (Bulls is not the easiest place to attract people to)!

I would like to see another 10 109LUH's purchased along with 6 more NH90's for the Navy to repalce seasprites in time.

A small contingent of Tigers (therefore maintaning cost savings by keeping similar avionics etc) as our other helos.

6, A 400M for transport to replace Hercs.

6 P 8's to replace or P3's

Possibility of leasing or sharing costs with Aussies to get access to strike capabilty, maybe the J35 programme? Reinstate Aermacchi's to improve training and aide recruitment.

Increase personnel numbers and payrates to retain staff.

Pablo.

[Dave Homewood]

Welcome to the forum Pablo.

May 18, 2008 23:34:18 GMT 12 pablo said:

I would first like to see Whenuapai and Hobsonville continue in their current functions

As Hobsonville's current function is a Housing Corp Estate I'd prefer it reverted to its previous function as an RNZAF base. Sadly within the next year a new township with two schools, shops and the lot is to be built on the hugely historic and beautiful old base.

[Brett]

RNZAF in 2030?

6 x Lockheed P-3K Orion
4 x Kaman SH-2G Seasprite
4 x Beechcraft B200 King Airs
2 x Boeing 757-200
4 x C-130H Hercules
10 x Pacific Aerospace CT-4E Airtrainer
5 x Agusta A109
8 x NHI NH90

[Dave Homewood]

Are you expecting a few Airtrainer crashes then Brett?

[the_flying_surfer]

Ok I'll play this game

5 x LEP C-130's (with A400's on order)
15 x PC-21 for Pilot Training
5 x A109's
8 x NH90's
2 x B757
4 x CASA 235 Medium Lift/Advanced Pilot Training
4 x MRH90 (Replaced the Seasprite as only us and Egypt were flying them, and parts were becoming horrendously expensive)
2 x Global Hawk (Bye Bye 5 SQN!!!!!!!!)

[Naki]

Okay heres my prediction:

4 A400M
2 Boeing BBJs
4 Cn295
4 CN 295MP
3 P-8s
10 NH-90s
10 A109 LUHs
4 NFH-90s
5 King Air 350s
8 CT-4Fs
12 Beech T-6s or PC-21s

[Dave Homewood]

I think we'll have airships for long range maitime patrols as they will be more efficiant and environmentally friendly than aircraft and have a bigger duration. They were seriously considered by the NZ Govt in the 1970's and 80's for the same reasons.

[sniff]

I dunno, Dave.
Airships and the Roaring 40's don't seem like a good mix to me. Unless you can maintain 120kts in your airship, you are heading for Chile or at the very least, hovering! Alternatively, it would be a pretty long tack to get around the other two sides of the triangle to get back home. Agreed, you wouldn't fly them on those days, but with a Westerly Index like we have in NZ, you wouldnt be flying on many days of the year.

[Dave Homewood]

Nah, they'd be chained to a big winch on windy days and they could be reeled back in. ;D

[Brett]

I'm not expecting crashes as such, just a level of attrition over the next 20+ years. If you like you can think of them as being reduced to spares to keep the remainder flying.

There won't be the need for so much pilot training, given the reduced fleet overall and the number of UAVs that will be in use at that time. Simulators and computer based training may pick up the slack. Ab initio training may also be outsourced, reducing the training fleet even further.

[pablo]

I see not many calls for strike capability in the replies.

Are we all resigned on that front?

I suggessted...
Possibility of leasing or sharing costs with Aussies to get access to strike capabilty, maybe the J35 programme? Reinstate Aermacchi's to improve training and aide recruitment.

Also combat Helos (tigers) to give some airsupport to our operations when needed.

[motoxjase]

I think your right Pablo......them days are gone (Bummer)

[FlyNavy]

Wait for Chinese Aircraft Carrier visits and see what happens to NOT having a ship strike capability for New Zealand. OR if Fiji goes feral. Maybe the Chinese/NZ Free Trade Deal will keep everyone happy but that thread was deleted. :-( ;D