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Post by skyhawkdon on Jun 25, 2018 20:02:48 GMT 12
No news from today's cabinet meeting then? As much as I admire Ron Mark's enthusiasm I'm still thinking this won't happen under this Gov't... hope I'm proved wrong.
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Post by kiwithrottlejockey on Jun 25, 2018 20:59:49 GMT 12
Its going to be hard enough to justify 4 airframes to the NZ Taxpayer at NZ$2B. 6 would be $3B. But I agree, down the track 4 won't be enough once they start going through heavy maintenance. As I already posted on the page of the thread before this one, the time for a government to announce they are going to spend a lot of money on an expensive defence acquisition is early during their first term before they have picked up a lot of baggage. The public (who tend to prefer to spend money on other things, such as health and education) are more likely to forgive a new government over spending money on something they don't really care about, whereas they are more likely to crucify a government with a lot of baggage. That's why I am very cynical of the last government making an announcement about spending a lot of money on a defence acquisition like this during their ninth year in power, because history tends to tell us (with two exceptions since the 1930s) that the ninth year is likely to be the last year in power and the beginning of a long spell on the opposition benches. And the politicians know this, so they are making promises they know they are unlikely to keep. So now is the time for Ron Mark to push hard for six airframes. |
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Post by gibbo on Jun 25, 2018 21:09:33 GMT 12
Why are the RNZAF going for only 4 airframes to replace 6 airframes? I dare say it won't be RNZAF deciding that... they'll have been told what budget they have to work with and they'll have realised 4 will be the max... we still hear 'up to 4'... god help us if the Govt only nod for 3! The key to the smaller number is the way they'll be used. I'm picking 4 x P8 will do much of what the P3K2 currently does but will more set aside for more 'combat' focused roles with SAR & maritime patrols less often. The balance of SAR & MPA tasking will be taken up by the FAMC components as 'SAR' tasking was a requirement of that RFI - just hopefully there will be a couple of extras over & above the 5 C130H replacement (do NOT start discussing possible types - it'll close the thread). Remember SAR & MPA des not require half of what the P8 carries, FAMC will offer perfectly capable options in this space. The King Airs will also take some of the low key inshore SAR & MPA slack up but with only 4 a/c they won't be doing a lot I expect. |
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Post by saratoga on Jun 25, 2018 21:27:20 GMT 12
also struggling to crew the airframes they currently have,so only 4 ,requires less crew.
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Post by kiwiruna on Jun 26, 2018 10:23:49 GMT 12
Hi Guys.
A quick clarification please.
Is the Govts intention to replace the Orion with 1 or 2 types? Ie the P-8(Maybe) for military use and some kind of dedicated long range patrol a/c for fisheries and SAR. I'm a little confused.Thanks
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Post by zealman on Jun 26, 2018 11:39:16 GMT 12
The P-8 deal won't happen unfortunately. The Green Party will make sure of that.
I greatly respect Ron Mark, and his efforts, but I'm not holding my breath. They couldn't even afford a military spec Littoral Vessel for the Navy.
A huge amount of wishful thinking on Ron Mark"s behalf I think.
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Post by conman on Jun 26, 2018 13:17:10 GMT 12
As the Green Party are not part of government proper I don’t think they need them onboard anyway,
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Post by ErrolC on Jun 26, 2018 13:36:28 GMT 12
As the Green Party are not part of government proper I don’t think they need them onboard anyway, Technically not (Cabinet sub-committee must approve, Cabinet must approve, Parliament must approve), the practicalities are such that they can't be ignored. Even if National voted for it (which seems very unlikely, no matter how logical it might appear at first glance), there would be consequences if the Greens were not 'on board'. Note that without National, the Greens have to vote for, just abstaining won't do it. |
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Dinga
Warrant Officer
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Post by Dinga on Jun 26, 2018 14:24:56 GMT 12
As the Green Party are not part of government proper I don’t think they need them onboard anyway, Technically not (Cabinet sub-committee must approve, Cabinet must approve, Parliament must approve), the practicalities are such that they can't be ignored. Even if National voted for it (which seems very unlikely, no matter how logical it might appear at first glance), there would be consequences if the Greens were not 'on board'. Note that without National, the Greens have to vote for, just abstaining won't do it. Intersting point of view their Errolc, care to enlighten us as to why you think the Nats would try to delay the replacement programme?Just curious |
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Post by ErrolC on Jun 26, 2018 15:26:24 GMT 12
Because it is politically useful for them to do so (ie vote against when the Greens also vote against). Showing the coalition to be weak. They never publicly endorsed P-8s, gives them plenty of leeway to criticise. They could even say they are ok in principle, but have issues with price/basing/support/impact on other defence projects.
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Post by saratoga on Jun 26, 2018 17:36:55 GMT 12
The confusion is the replacement is the capability,not the platform.so whatever capability is deemed desirable .
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Post by thelensofhistory on Jun 27, 2018 0:43:44 GMT 12
No news from today's cabinet meeting then? As much as I admire Ron Mark's enthusiasm I'm still thinking this won't happen under this Gov't... hope I'm proved wrong.
I honesty think the RNZAF's P-3K2 Orion and C-130 Hercules will fly until their air frames fall apart. The bipartisan approach to under funding and downgrading the NZDF's capabilities can't lead anywhere good.
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Post by zealman on Jun 27, 2018 10:57:53 GMT 12
You're right thelensofhistory.
A large percentage of "NU-Zillindas", are just thick to be honest. And you have the nerve to call Aussies stupid? At least Australians aren't getting paid &16.50 per hour, and forking out $2.40 per litre for fuel. Just take a look at the Media in this country for example.
There was an article in the Christchurch Press a few days ago regarding Ron Mark being one step closer to replacing the P-3 fleet.
On reading a lot of the comments re this article, I was quite disturbed by what I was hearing. One person suggested we hand over the Navy's responsibilities to the Police Force. Another person was claiming N.Z doesn't really need a military as we are too far away from the rest of the world, while another reader claimed that if we brought the P-8s off the U.S, then we will be supporting a Fascist Nazi Dictatorship in Donald Trump's government. Another reader was outraged at the "$2 b price tag per plane". Obviously reading and comprehension skills are lacking in this country?
It's no wonder no one takes this country seriously.
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Post by kiwiruna on Jun 27, 2018 12:03:16 GMT 12
Not wanting to be a death monger or anything.
But perhaps we need a couple of major mishaps to show that you can't keep flying 50 yr old+ aircraft indefinitely (Damn. me and the Orions are the same age)(Tender now open to replace). On this basis NASA would still be flying out each space shuttles 100 mission life. Thats with a 40% vehicle failure and flight failure rate of approx 1.5%.I know different technologies and all that just saying.
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awol
Flight Sergeant
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Post by awol on Jun 27, 2018 22:10:21 GMT 12
DC-3
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Post by Dave Homewood on Jun 27, 2018 22:17:30 GMT 12
The difference with the DC-3 is parts are still freely available, unlike the P-3
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Post by snafu on Jun 28, 2018 20:51:04 GMT 12
Hi Guys. A quick clarification please. Is the Govts intention to replace the Orion with 1 or 2 types? Ie the P-8(Maybe) for military use and some kind of dedicated long range patrol a/c for fisheries and SAR. I'm a little confused.Thanks If they select P8, its most likely only 4 airframes, these will be worked hard. most likely 1 airframe will be overseas at any one time doing the international obligation training/operations, one also must remember that this is also your ISR/photo recon aircraft it will be in demand across NZ and the realm.
local patrols will be done via all available assets to the RNZAF from P8 down to the King Airs with the old MK1 eyeball, but it would be nice if the could convert a couple with FLIR and limited ISR capability
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nazgul
Leading Aircraftman
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Post by nazgul on Jun 28, 2018 23:08:11 GMT 12
local patrols will be done via all available assets to the RNZAF from P8 down to the King Airs with the old MK1 eyeball, but it would be nice if the could convert a couple with FLIR and limited ISR capability
Did you see Ron Mark's statement about the new King Air's: " In an additional boost to air force capability, two of the aircraft will be configured to assist in the important maritime surveillance task across our exclusive economic zone." Per this post |
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Post by conman on Jun 29, 2018 12:18:44 GMT 12
I would hope that aircraft availability was significantly better than the P3 , the US replaced their P3 fleet at approximately the same 4 for 6 ratio, modern airliners get flown pretty hard
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Post by Dave Homewood on Jun 29, 2018 18:05:43 GMT 12
local patrols will be done via all available assets to the RNZAF from P8 down to the King Airs with the old MK1 eyeball, but it would be nice if the could convert a couple with FLIR and limited ISR capability
Did you see Ron Mark's statement about the new King Air's: " In an additional boost to air force capability, two of the aircraft will be configured to assist in the important maritime surveillance task across our exclusive economic zone." Per this postThose are the ones that will be training our Air Warfare Officers and AEOp's now after that training has been brought home from Australia. |
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