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Post by Dave Homewood on Oct 21, 2017 0:28:53 GMT 12
I wonder who the new Defence Minister will be. Iain Lees-Galloway? Ron Mark? Winston Peters? Whoever it is, the three parties now holding power have vastly different plans for defence in their policy manifesto. Winston wants to re-arm the RNZAF while Labour wants to disarm the world... It's going to be a struggle to amalgamate these ideas into a clear plan... www.interest.co.nz/news/87530/election-2017-party-policies-defence-and-security-defence |
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Post by harvard1041 on Oct 21, 2017 3:22:48 GMT 12
I'd guess 'whatever is cheapest' will be the combined policy ... along with deferring any big dollar items (P-3 replacement ?) - recall what happened to the F-16s & A-4s after a similar Govt change a few years back ? ... sure hope I'm wrong with the above.
Hvd1041
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Post by 30sqnatc on Oct 21, 2017 6:54:06 GMT 12
Affordable - start with some armed Texans
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Post by conman on Oct 21, 2017 8:49:09 GMT 12
Pretty certain Ron Mark will get the Defence portfolio, bringing back combat capability to the RNZAF could be equipping the P8’s with JDAM and Harpoon
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Post by camtech on Oct 21, 2017 9:40:19 GMT 12
And the Greens want our maritime surveillance capabilities not to include any anti-submarine detection or offensive weapons!
Go figure.
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Post by Dave Homewood on Oct 21, 2017 10:08:28 GMT 12
As Hvd1041 pointed out to me last night, Mark is ex-Army and will probably cancel the P-8 plans and funnel the money to Army projects. That would be bloody typical.
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Post by 30sqnatc on Oct 21, 2017 15:00:17 GMT 12
Well the reverse (milking budgets initially earmarked for land projects) has been happening for the last few years so in the long run it probably all balances out.
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Post by Dave Homewood on Oct 21, 2017 15:21:22 GMT 12
Only because air was so badly neglected, and the projects to replace three of the fleets still need to be completed.
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Post by 30sqnatc on Oct 21, 2017 20:24:53 GMT 12
I don't disagree that the major platform replacements are well overdue but I do think Air have painted themselves into the situation with arguably overly optimistic midlife upgrades that took much longer and significantly more staff effort than anticipated. Effort that should have been progressing the replacement process long ago.
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Post by Dave Homewood on Oct 21, 2017 21:43:23 GMT 12
Oh well there will be plenty of money to go round when the Greens pension off the ANZAC frigates.
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Post by campbellbox on Oct 22, 2017 20:07:36 GMT 12
I would have thought it pretty likely the policy will remain on the same track it's been on for a while and eventually we will get what we need. Labour's never been shy about peacekeeping operations. The Greens like SAR. NZ First leans towards more expansive (expensive!) capabilities. I think the future looks pretty good for the Air Force fleet replacements, but the strike wing's not coming back any time soon.
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Post by skyhawkdon on Oct 23, 2017 7:31:19 GMT 12
The P-8 will be the litmus test for the new Gov't. No one can argue we need new transports but the P-8 might be too capable and expensive for Labour and the Greens I'm picking. Will also be interesting to see what happens to the Singapore fast jets being based at Ohakea...
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Post by conman on Oct 23, 2017 10:27:26 GMT 12
Pretty irrelevant what Labour and the Greens want as they have both sold their souls to Mr Winston, and Ron Mark will be allowed to play in Defence as much as he likes, he has in the past shown a preference for a tactical transport option , so expect to see a move towards a C295 or C27J class aircraft
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Post by Dave Homewood on Oct 23, 2017 12:33:22 GMT 12
You forget that Labour will hold the Finance portfolio though Con.
The other thing that worries me greatly is what will happen with the great relationship that has built back up with the US Armed Forces.
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Post by madmac on Oct 23, 2017 13:42:19 GMT 12
The other thing that worries me greatly is what will happen with the great relationship that has built back up with the US Armed Forces. Well so far they are going to cut immigration (upsetting India & China) and are threatening 1/3 of all logs imports to china which happen use dedicated infrastructure (see the setting up of a NZ forestry Service to reduce raw log exports). www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/98120823/jacinda-arderns-coalition-government-to-bring-back-the-forestry-serviceI think the US will fall under the lesser of two evils. Given that they seem to think that they can exclude foreign property ownership from TPP 11, we would be looking for them to give a big sweetener to at-least one of key players & a C2 / P1 buy would be about right(particularly if the Japs provide a cheap bridging loan cover differences in time frame). I guess this will be balanced with a C130J buy to provide low end lift. |
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Post by Mustang51 on Oct 24, 2017 10:07:50 GMT 12
Glad I am not on your side of The Ditch right now.......
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Post by conman on Oct 24, 2017 11:25:20 GMT 12
The P-8 will be the litmus test for the new Gov't. No one can argue we need new transports but the P-8 might be too capable and expensive for Labour and the Greens I'm picking. Will also be interesting to see what happens to the Singapore fast jets being based at Ohakea... 7192 (2017). Ron Mark to the Minister of Defence (09 Aug 2017): If the United States FMS application lodged was for four P-8A Poseidon aircraft, approved in April 2017, will other Maritime Patrol Aircraft be acquired to ensure there are one for one replacements for the P3K Orions? Hon Mark Mitchell (Minister of Defence) replied: The Government has not yet made a decision on the replacements for the P3K Orions. Might be a good sign for preservation of the ASW role |
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Post by skyhawkdon on Oct 24, 2017 12:13:05 GMT 12
Sounds like Ron Mark is getting the Defence Minister role. At one time he was very pro Air Combat Force and NZF have it in their policy to reinstate an offensive combat capability to the Air Force, so it will be interesting to see what comes of it. As someone else has suggested a Harpoon equipped P-8 might acheive this. A bit hard to fire a warning shot with a missile though ;+)
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Post by conman on Oct 24, 2017 12:41:08 GMT 12
I doubt we will see any fast jets, perception issue , but I would imagine we could see an expansion of the rotary wing force, as the small numbers have been critised by Ron Mark in the past and wouldn’t phase the Labour/Green’s , that and a two tier transport option would be some good wins, maybe something like a modular C295W to supplement the P8 in the maritime recon SAR role as well as the tactical transport role.
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Post by flyinkiwi on Oct 24, 2017 13:05:59 GMT 12
I think it is far too early for anything concrete with respect to new gear. My opinion is that the Govt will put a hold on all acquisitions pending a new Defense White Paper which they'll then use to justify any decisions to continue/amend/drop future buys.
I hope I am wrong but we've seen this movie before.
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