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Post by alanster on Jun 6, 2020 18:25:14 GMT 12
I agree re: Y20. How about 3x Embraer KC390s for strategic airlift and 2x B777s from AirNZ for VIP.  The smaller KC390s are suitable for the smaller RNZAF and can do the antartica run there and back without refuelling. |
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Post by madmac on Jun 6, 2020 19:54:28 GMT 12
The RNZAF could probably get a cheap deal picking up some of the 321Neo slots from AirNZ. Given the current prices of used airliners and a general lack of cash can't see us getting anything but used airliners, although they might get their S*** together (MOD) this time and get a couple of extra airframes for cost control (Mil spares even for airliners are not interchangeble with Civil, so need a much larger spares holding than a civil reg aircraft).
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Post by gibbo on Jun 6, 2020 20:32:48 GMT 12
I agree re: Y20. How about 3x Embraer KC390s for strategic airlift and 2x B777s from AirNZ for VIP. The smaller KC390s are suitable for the smaller RNZAF and can do the antartica run there and back without refuelling. Yes it would be cool if Govt etc had an epiphany and looked to bump the transport fleet up to 10 aircraft... it would make sense numbers wise but I think it's safe to say that won't happen. I think we'll be lucky if the RNZAF gets anything more than 1:1 replacements for the B757... 3 would be a logical number but I'm not going to hold my breath. KC-390 are more a C130J alternative so I'd class them as a tactical contender in the NZ context... rather than a serious B757 replacement, however that horse has now (sensibly) bolted. B777 is likely just a too big...and I seriously doubt NZ will contemplate anything that largely only does VIP. B757 taskings are far more diverse than just VIP and that is the role that the RNZAF will be looking to fill (pax/cargo deployment support; AME; & some VIP). I'd suggest it is now unlikely the RNZAF will get something capable of taking a NH-90... the horse has bolted on the one serious contender! Other contenders simply carry too much risk for NZ for varying reasons)... the NZDF will simply adjust deployments to fit with available transport (including allied support), as it always has, and will lean more towards sealift as much as possible if/when a 2nd sealift vessel arrives. I'm well aware of the rationale for getting a large NH-90 capable airlifter but it seems to me that won't happen... happy to be proved wrong though! It's going to be an interesting project to watch unfold as I don't think there's a immediately obvious contender for a B757 replacement... and yes the sudden availability of low-houred ex-airliners does potentially open up the options. |
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Post by ErrolC on Jun 6, 2020 21:49:34 GMT 12
The RNZAF could probably get a cheap deal picking up some of the 321Neo slots from AirNZ. Given the current prices of used airliners and a general lack of cash can't see us getting anything but used airliners, although they might get their S*** together (MOD) this time and get a couple of extra airframes for cost control (Mil spares even for airliners are not interchangeble with Civil, so need a much larger spares holding than a civil reg aircraft). Given our low activity levels compared to airlines, wouldn't getting new-build just buy unused airframe (and engine?) hours when support becomes difficult due to the type dropping out of airline/cargo use sometime down the line? |
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Post by kiwiredley on Jun 6, 2020 22:08:19 GMT 12
Just on Flightglobal confirmation of NZ Government approval to buy 5 C130J Aircraft delivery 2024-2025
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Post by macnz on Jun 10, 2020 14:26:33 GMT 12
The RNZAF could probably get a cheap deal picking up some of the 321Neo slots from AirNZ. Given the current prices of used airliners and a general lack of cash can't see us getting anything but used airliners, although they might get their S*** together (MOD) this time and get a couple of extra airframes for cost control (Mil spares even for airliners are not interchangeble with Civil, so need a much larger spares holding than a civil reg aircraft). Given our low activity levels compared to airlines, wouldn't getting new-build just buy unused airframe (and engine?) hours when support becomes difficult due to the type dropping out of airline/cargo use sometime down the line? Given ANZ is about to drop their 4x own 777s (plus some leased ones) into the boneyard in Oz, I wonder why anyone hasn’t thought of leasing a couple to the Air Force to bridge the 757 issue? Taxpayer should be able to negotiate a pretty good deal because (1) we’re the biggest shareholder, (2) ANZ given $900m loan from us (3) ANZ already written them off their planning and financials. The 777s are used by many of the air logistic carriers. Considered more efficient and economical than 747s and 767s for the last decade, so if any conversion needed (cargo door for upper deck) its a commonplace conversion. ANZ would probably jump at chance to offset their leasing costs on the other unused 777s, and govt could contract them to continue to do the maintenance and certification (thus saving some more NZ jobs hopefully). So the 777s maybe a little big for the need but they are available now and the money spent predominantly recirculated in NZ. Would be nice to have more capacity than needed for a change I should think. I understand there is a mix of 200s and 300ERs - not sure which variant are owned vs leased. I’still support/hope NZ would get 2 A400Ms to properly fit out our strategic air capacity but in the interim, a couple of 777s is better than the status quo. Is the idea of leasing from ANZ that impractical? Read Here: www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/121778085/air-new-zealand-777-aircraft-heading-to-australian-boneyard |
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Post by macnz on Jun 10, 2020 15:24:15 GMT 12
The 777-300ERs reported to be younger (cica 2010) and interiors were refurbished in 2017 - so no extra needed to spend on outfitting for the VIPs/pollies. Just need to add a few secure comms, check if the model has ever been certified to fly to the Deep South, get some boys into some sim training, quick paint job and maybe we've solved the operability issue posed by our 757s this year? - I know I'm getting flippant now.  |
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Post by machina on Jun 10, 2020 18:51:38 GMT 12
That sounds too sensible. A bunch of us should write to the govt suggesting it though.
Side note: what’s happening with the new Dreamliners AirNZ has lines up?
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Post by johnnyfalcon on Jun 10, 2020 19:41:57 GMT 12
That sounds too sensible. A bunch of us should write to the govt suggesting it though. Side note: what’s happening with the new Dreamliners AirNZ has lines up? There are 4 B787s parked up at NZCH |
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Post by Dave Homewood on Jun 10, 2020 19:44:25 GMT 12
You'd better be quick, Bring Our Birds Home has gone after the 777's.......
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Post by madmac on Jun 10, 2020 22:20:00 GMT 12
No one will be rushing to do a cargo conversion of a B787.
The RNZAF could stand up a TAF sqn (staffed with ex service formally of AirNZ) and just leave the B777s on the ZK reg (much easier to borrow a couple of airframes for cost).
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Post by machina on Jun 10, 2020 22:24:40 GMT 12
Just to be clear I wasn’t suggesting any RNZAF involvement for 787s. I haven’t read anything regarding the effect of this global change on the Dreamliner purchase signalled last year and was curious if anyone knew what was happening on that front given the change in global conditions.
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Post by macnz on Jun 11, 2020 0:13:45 GMT 12
The 787-10s were replacing the 777-200s (oldest in the ANZ fleet), I think the 777-300s were (pre CoVid) slated to continue operating alongside the 787-9s and the 787-10s for the next few years as the long haul fleet. I believe the intention is to continue operating the 787-9s as the reduced long haul fleet. The 8x 787-10s weren’t scheduled for delivery until 2022 so given the outlook, chances are the 777-300s won’t be returning anytime in the next few years either. The demand for 777-300s was pretty strong prior to CoVid so if the NZ govt doesn’t ask for them, ANZ should have no problem flogging them off next year I should think.
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Post by machina on Jun 11, 2020 7:33:04 GMT 12
The 787-10s were replacing the 777-200s (oldest in the ANZ fleet), I think the 777-300s were (pre CoVid) slated to continue operating alongside the 787-9s and the 787-10s for the next few years as the long haul fleet. I believe the intention is to continue operating the 787-9s as the reduced long haul fleet. The 8x 787-10s weren’t scheduled for delivery until 2022 so given the outlook, chances are the 777-300s won’t be returning anytime in the next few years either. The demand for 777-300s was pretty strong prior to CoVid so if the NZ govt doesn’t ask for them, ANZ should have no problem flogging them off next year I should think. Thanks Mac. |
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Post by ErrolC on Jun 11, 2020 7:37:12 GMT 12
The 787-10s were replacing the 777-200s (oldest in the ANZ fleet), I think the 777-300s were (pre CoVid) slated to continue operating alongside the 787-9s and the 787-10s for the next few years as the long haul fleet. I believe the intention is to continue operating the 787-9s as the reduced long haul fleet. The 8x 787-10s weren’t scheduled for delivery until 2022 so given the outlook, chances are the 777-300s won’t be returning anytime in the next few years either. The demand for 777-300s was pretty strong prior to CoVid so if the NZ govt doesn’t ask for them, ANZ should have no problem flogging them off next year I should think. Hence why they have stood down B777 crew, it doesn't make sense to pay to keep them current. Getting back to RNZAF use, how much of the tasking is the B777 too big for? Antarctica trips (I don't think anyone has taken one down), Pacific Island pickups, what else? I'm sure there are A321s about that can be picked up cheap. Cargo versions of them are possibly in moderate demand. |
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Post by Dave Homewood on Jun 11, 2020 8:19:25 GMT 12
B777 is too big for everything. It could only land at Ohakea. Not an option.
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Post by aeromuzz on Jun 12, 2020 11:57:27 GMT 12
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Post by ErrolC on Jun 12, 2020 12:05:54 GMT 12
So is the engine wait because there is no rush as the airframe is out for other reasons, or is the NZDF paying for being a very minor customer of an engine manufacturer (RR) that has a large maintenance backlog due to them forgetting how to make aero engines that work as advertised?
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Post by macnz on Jun 12, 2020 15:19:14 GMT 12
Probably the latter.
"The plan has 2028 as the year the replacements will be introduced into service, with an indicative cost of between $300 and $600 million
Mark said deferring the replacement of the 757s had proven to be a good bet because more aircraft would become available as airlines look to sell their planes due to the effect of the coronavirus pandemic.I think that’s proven to be a good idea, because one of the things we never anticipated was Covid-19 and Covid-19 now has thrown off a whole whack of aircraft that are now surplus to requirements to the aviation companies that own them.”
Meanwhile we'll continue to bail out ANZ to the tune of $900m (plus whatever they may have claimed under Jobkeeper) and accept huge write downs of the 777 fleet as their largest shareholder? ...and let ANZ continue to disingenuously not refund NZ customers because the law doesn't compel them too? I wonder how far off the flight/airframe hours utility assumption we are, that treasury used in the original 757 procurement case? Another 8+ years before replacement - good grief charlie brown.
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Post by ErrolC on Jun 12, 2020 16:35:49 GMT 12
Probably the latter. " The plan has 2028 as the year the replacements will be introduced into service, with an indicative cost of between $300 and $600 million
Mark said deferring the replacement of the 757s had proven to be a good bet because more aircraft would become available as airlines look to sell their planes due to the effect of the coronavirus pandemic.I think that’s proven to be a good idea, because one of the things we never anticipated was Covid-19 and Covid-19 now has thrown off a whole whack of aircraft that are now surplus to requirements to the aviation companies that own them.”
Meanwhile we'll continue to bail out ANZ to the tune of $900m (plus whatever they may have claimed under Jobkeeper) and accept huge write downs of the 777 fleet as their largest shareholder? ...and let ANZ continue to disingenuously not refund NZ customers because the law doesn't compel them too? I wonder how far off the flight/airframe hours utility assumption we are, that treasury used in the original 757 procurement case? Another 8+ years before replacement - good grief charlie brown. Loans are available, but not taken up as I understand it. Given the high interest rates, you can see why. But the availability gives AirNZ more options (and avoids 'trading while insolvent' issues). And Jobkeeper is capped at a (moderately low) fixed total per business, if staff are laid off you have to pass it on to them. |
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