Boeing P-8 - the P3K2 Orion Replacement

[nighthawknz]

Jul 5, 2023 22:31:42 GMT 12 madmac said:

Jul 5, 2023 15:36:48 GMT 12 ajmcg said:

The problem with 4 aircraft is that we plan to use them for the next 30 years. Having 6 P-8’s would mean that the hours to be flown would be spread over more aircraft and we could get 30 years out of them.

The problem with 4 airframes is, ten years in, whats the dispatch rate doing to be, if its 80%, 1 in 25 missions is going to be on the 3rd airframe they power up that morning, if one is in maintenance and another waiting to relieved from station (or what ever), 1 in 25 missions won't be launching. Critical fleet mass is a very real very multi faceted problem.

They have already been here before with the P-3 fleet its Ok we are smarter this time!

They are suppose to be offsetting some of the standard patrols the P3's did with Long Range Drones and only using the P8's for the high operational envirioments probably like South China Sea... whether this happens or not we will have to wait and see.

[kiwirob]

Jul 6, 2023 6:06:42 GMT 12 nighthawknz said:

Jul 5, 2023 22:31:42 GMT 12 madmac said:

The problem with 4 airframes is, ten years in, whats the dispatch rate doing to be, if its 80%, 1 in 25 missions is going to be on the 3rd airframe they power up that morning, if one is in maintenance and another waiting to relieved from station (or what ever), 1 in 25 missions won't be launching. Critical fleet mass is a very real very multi faceted problem.

They have already been here before with the P-3 fleet its Ok we are smarter this time!

They are suppose to be offsetting some of the standard patrols the P3's did with Long Range Drones and only using the P8's for the high operational envirioments probably like South China Sea... whether this happens or not we will have to wait and see.

Why on earth would we be operating anywhere near the South China Sea? 

As for fleet numbers we always make this mistake, only 2 frigates when we should have had 3, the 2 have been flogged, only 5 Seasprites in the first batch when we should have 8, only 8 NH90's which are the highest hour fleet of any NH90 users, maybe we rectify this by buying some of the retiring Australian NH90's.  

[nighthawknz]

Jul 6, 2023 18:09:52 GMT 12 kiwirob said:

Jul 6, 2023 6:06:42 GMT 12 nighthawknz said:

They are suppose to be offsetting some of the standard patrols the P3's did with Long Range Drones and only using the P8's for the high operational envirioments probably like South China Sea... whether this happens or not we will have to wait and see.

Why on earth would we be operating anywhere near the South China Sea? 

As for fleet numbers we always make this mistake, only 2 frigates when we should have had 3, the 2 have been flogged, only 5 Seasprites in the first batch when we should have 8, only 8 NH90's which are the highest hour fleet of any NH90 users, maybe we rectify this by buying some of the retiring Australian NH90's.  

ie; the P3's  were regularly deployed to the SCS as part of the UN sanctions on North Korea. Not saying that they are there all the time but we deploy regularly there. When one is on station there leaving three here the drones are suppose to take up the slack of regular boarder patrols... My point these deployments are what the P8's will concentrate on.

But will also do the standard S&R and patrols as well...  and they are already doing this...

We all know 4 is not enough there may be a chance more get ordered (I doubt it... but there is an outside chance) as 5 years down the track four air frames means only one fully servicable with a 2nd in light maintenace the other 2 in deep maintenance etc... we all know this

And for the record ... Totally agree with the numbers...

• Personally I want us to get back to a minimum of a 4 frigate navy with the Patrol Squadron of the OPV's and IPV's and Auxiliary fleet. I also want the Frigates to at least have more than the pengiun Missile maybe its bigger brother like the Naval Strike Missile etc
  
• As for P-8A's yes I wanted 6 plus the said drones.
• C-130j-30 would have preferred 6 but also wish they got a strategic lifter as well that can carry the NH-90 and LAV and Bushmasters to anywhere in the world... Going forward possibly like a few of Japaness C-2 added to the fleet;
• and to be fair I am undecided on the replacing of the B-757's

[ErrolC]

Jul 7, 2023 5:37:03 GMT 12 nighthawknz said:

We all know 4 is not enough there may be a chance more get ordered (I doubt it... but there is an outside chance) as 5 years down the track four air frames means only one fully servicable with a 2nd in light maintenace the other 2 in deep maintenance etc... we all know this

One of the issues is the single low-rate production facility for the 737NG (ie not MAX) airframes, used for P-8s and E-7s. I'm sure Boeing would like someone to pay for the certification of MAX-based versions of these so they can convert that plant to something else. But soon-ish if anyone wants extra P-8s they have to work around whatever P-8s the USN gets AND the USAF replacing the E-3s.

[madmac]

[/quote]One of the issues is the single low-rate production facility for the 737NG (ie not MAX) airframes, used for P-8s and E-7s. I'm sure Boeing would like someone to pay for the certification of MAX-based versions of these so they can convert that plant to something else. But soon-ish if anyone wants extra P-8s they have to work around whatever P-8s the USN gets AND the USAF replacing the E-3s.
[/quote]
Pitty they don't jam the p-8 package in the B767, that would give an airframe with the range we want rather than something that really needs a tankers to do what we want it to do.

[daqqy152]

Wasn't the original plan for the P8 to use the 757 platform? For the interior room and its range. The Navy procrastinated for too long and the 757 went out of production, so that left the 737.

Edit From wiki for the P7

In the mid-1980s, the U.S. Navy made plans to replace the large number of Lockheed P-3 aircraft which would reach the end of their useful service lives during the 1990s. To limit costs the U.S. Navy envisioned a modified P-3 with increased payload and updated avionics. This aircraft became known as the "P-3G" of which 125 should be procured over a period of five years up to 2001. However, the U.S. Navy was unwilling to select Lockheed's P-3G without any competition and issued the final "Request for Proposals (RFP)" in January 1987. For the airplane named the P-7A "LRAACA" (Long-Range Air ASW-Capable Aircraft), Lockheed's competitors were:

Boeing - proposal using a modified 757[2]
McDonnell Douglas - proposal using a modified MD-90[3]
In October 1988, the U.S. Navy announced that Lockheed won the competition,[4] as the company's proposal was significantly cheaper than that of the competitors. The U.S. Defense Acquisition Board (DAB) recommended a full-scale development of the LRAACA on 4 January 1989. The costs were planned to be about $600 million, with a maximum cost limit of $750 million. However, in November 1989, Lockheed announced a cost overrun of $300 million due to the tight schedule and design problems. On 20 July 1990, the U.S. Navy stopped the P-7A program contract for default, "citing Lockheed's inability to make adequate progress toward completion of all contract phases".[5] The program was finally cancelled by the DAB in late 1990.

[ErrolC]

Number 4 is now heading to Hawaii.


Poseidon fleet complete! ✈️✈️✈️✈️

Four of four #P8 maritime patrol aircraft are now delivered to the @nzairforce.

The P-8 will provide advanced capabilities to maintain situational awareness in New Zealand waters. Watch the final aircraft take off to join the rest of the fleet.

[ErrolC]

Departed Hawaii this morning, presumably for Fiji.

[ajmcg]

NZ4804 is about 30 minutes from landfall coming down from Fiji

[ajmcg]

I’m going to claim Little Barrier Island as landfall. They have some good southwesterly winds to get through

[ajmcg]

Arrived 1.33pm Ohakea, four for four. We need more

[ErrolC]

Pics

[machina]

Very nice.

This may have been answered already, but have these been flown home by RNZAF crews, or Boeing pilots?

[ErrolC]

Jul 17, 2023 20:00:55 GMT 12 machina said:

Very nice.

This may have been answered already, but have these been flown home by RNZAF crews, or Boeing pilots?

They are 'delivered' to us in Seattle, and flown here by RNZAF crews.

[machina]

Jul 17, 2023 20:06:37 GMT 12 ErrolC said:

Jul 17, 2023 20:00:55 GMT 12 machina said:

Very nice.

This may have been answered already, but have these been flown home by RNZAF crews, or Boeing pilots?

They are 'delivered' to us in Seattle, and flown here by RNZAF crews.

Thanks Errol.

[kiwirob]

Jul 7, 2023 5:37:03 GMT 12 nighthawknz said:

Jul 6, 2023 18:09:52 GMT 12 kiwirob said:

Why on earth would we be operating anywhere near the South China Sea? 

As for fleet numbers we always make this mistake, only 2 frigates when we should have had 3, the 2 have been flogged, only 5 Seasprites in the first batch when we should have 8, only 8 NH90's which are the highest hour fleet of any NH90 users, maybe we rectify this by buying some of the retiring Australian NH90's.  

ie; the P3's  were regularly deployed to the SCS as part of the UN sanctions on North Korea. Not saying that they are there all the time but we deploy regularly there. When one is on station there leaving three here the drones are suppose to take up the slack of regular boarder patrols... My point these deployments are what the P8's will concentrate on.

But will also do the standard S&R and patrols as well...  and they are already doing this...

We all know 4 is not enough there may be a chance more get ordered (I doubt it... but there is an outside chance) as 5 years down the track four air frames means only one fully servicable with a 2nd in light maintenace the other 2 in deep maintenance etc... we all know this

And for the record ... Totally agree with the numbers...

• Personally I want us to get back to a minimum of a 4 frigate navy with the Patrol Squadron of the OPV's and IPV's and Auxiliary fleet. I also want the Frigates to at least have more than the pengiun Missile maybe its bigger brother like the Naval Strike Missile etc
  
• As for P-8A's yes I wanted 6 plus the said drones.
• C-130j-30 would have preferred 6 but also wish they got a strategic lifter as well that can carry the NH-90 and LAV and Bushmasters to anywhere in the world... Going forward possibly like a few of Japaness C-2 added to the fleet;
• and to be fair I am undecided on the replacing of the B-757's

We haven't ordered any drones. The 4 P8's will be flogged. 

The Navy won't get bigger, we can't man the vessels we have today let along 2 additional frigates. 

We could have gone semi strategic and ordered A400's which can accommodate all the mentioned equipment. I doubt we will ever get any transports larger the the Hercules. 

We could replace the 757's with A321XLR's, I don't see us getting more adventurous than that, some people like to talk about A330 MRTTs that's pure fantasy IMO. 

[nighthawknz]

Jul 20, 2023 0:37:35 GMT 12 kiwirob said:

We haven't ordered any drones. The 4 P8's will be flogged. 

The Navy won't get bigger, we can't man the vessels we have today let along 2 additional frigates. 

We could have gone semi strategic and ordered A400's which can accommodate all the mentioned equipment. I doubt we will ever get any transports larger the the Hercules. 

We could replace the 757's with A321XLR's, I don't see us getting more adventurous than that, some people like to talk about A330 MRTTs that's pure fantasy IMO. 

I know... the closest they have come to the Drones is the RFI that was released a while back ...to be honest can't remember when if it was this year or last...  (I mean covid was only last week and 10 years ago lol)

Sad thing is i agree with what you said... something has to drastically change in the mindset of the polly's

[chrisr]

Jul 20, 2023 0:37:35 GMT 12 kiwirob said:

Jul 7, 2023 5:37:03 GMT 12 nighthawknz said:

ie; the P3's  were regularly deployed to the SCS as part of the UN sanctions on North Korea. Not saying that they are there all the time but we deploy regularly there. When one is on station there leaving three here the drones are suppose to take up the slack of regular boarder patrols... My point these deployments are what the P8's will concentrate on.

But will also do the standard S&R and patrols as well...  and they are already doing this...

We all know 4 is not enough there may be a chance more get ordered (I doubt it... but there is an outside chance) as 5 years down the track four air frames means only one fully servicable with a 2nd in light maintenace the other 2 in deep maintenance etc... we all know this

And for the record ... Totally agree with the numbers...

• Personally I want us to get back to a minimum of a 4 frigate navy with the Patrol Squadron of the OPV's and IPV's and Auxiliary fleet. I also want the Frigates to at least have more than the pengiun Missile maybe its bigger brother like the Naval Strike Missile etc
  
• As for P-8A's yes I wanted 6 plus the said drones.
• C-130j-30 would have preferred 6 but also wish they got a strategic lifter as well that can carry the NH-90 and LAV and Bushmasters to anywhere in the world... Going forward possibly like a few of Japaness C-2 added to the fleet;
• and to be fair I am undecided on the replacing of the B-757's

We haven't ordered any drones. The 4 P8's will be flogged. 

The Navy won't get bigger, we can't man the vessels we have today let along 2 additional frigates. 

We could have gone semi strategic and ordered A400's which can accommodate all the mentioned equipment. I doubt we will ever get any transports larger the the Hercules. 

We could replace the 757's with A321XLR's, I don't see us getting more adventurous than that, some people like to talk about A330 MRTTs that's pure fantasy IMO. 

We should not order A400's. Even if half of this article is true, they will rust away in New Zealand's air;

aviationsourcenews.com/news/the-airbus-a400m-is-creating-issues-for-the-raf-personnel-are-not-enjoying-it/

That aside they would basically be an orphan fleet at the bottom of the world and as we know from Airbus' treatment of Australia's and NZ's NH90's if one broke we would be waiting a long time for spares.

If we wanted a larger strategic air-lifter, we should have brought C-17s before they closed the production line. Maintenance could have been completed in Australia and we could have taken duties from the US C-17's which visit Christchurch. But that ship sailed many years ago.

[tfly]

Interesting article for those who may not have seen it!

theconversation.com/cutting-edge-new-aircraft-have-increased-nzs-surveillance-capacity-but-are-they-enough-in-a-changing-world-209495

[madmac]

Jul 29, 2023 8:06:15 GMT 12 tfly said:

Interesting article for those who may not have seen it!

theconversation.com/cutting-edge-new-aircraft-have-increased-nzs-surveillance-capacity-but-are-they-enough-in-a-changing-world-209495

It would be nice if instead of using the NZ$2.436 billion figure, they would split it between infrastructure replacement program and the actual cost of the aircraft.